ƒvƒ‰ƒ“B3.0Œ´’�
ƒ��[ƒ‹ƒhƒEƒHƒbƒ`ƒWƒƒƒpƒ“
http://www.worldwatch-japan.org/


Plan B 3.0: Endnotes
Chapter 1. Entering a New World
1.David Adam, �gIce-Free Arctic Could be Here in 23 Years,�h Guardian (London), 5 September 2007.
2.Ibid.
3.Paul Brown, �gMelting Ice Cap Triggering Earthquakes,�h Guardian (London), 8 September 2007.
4.Ibid.
5.Ibid.
6.Alister Doyle, �gSea Rise Seen Outpacing Forecasts Due to Antarctica,�h Reuters, 23 August 2007.
7.Emily Wax, �gA Sacred River Endangered By Global Warming,�h Washington Post, 17 June 2007.
8.Clifford Coonan, �gChina�fs Water Supply Could be Cut Off as Tibet�fs Glaciers Melt,�h The Independent (London), 31 May 2007; �gGlacier Study Reveals Chilling Prediction,�h China Daily, 23 September 2004.
9.U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP), Global Outlook for Ice and Snow (Nairobi: 2007), p.103; J. Hansen et al., �gClimate Change and Trace Gases,�h Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, vol. 365 (15 July 2007), pp. 1949-50.
10.Gordon McGranahan et al., �gThe Rising Tide: Assessing the Risks of Climate Change and Human Settlements in Low Elevation Coastal Zones,�h Environment and Urbanization, vol. 18, no. 1 (April 2007), pp. 17-37; U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision Population Database, at esa.un.org/unpp, updated 2007. 
11.Lester R. Brown, Outgrowing the Earth (New York: W. W. Norton and Company, 2004), pp.101-02; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 10.
12.Fund for Peace and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, �gThe Failed States Index,�h Foreign Policy, July/August 2005, July/August 2006, and July/August 2007.
13.Nicholas Stern, The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change (London: HM Treasury, 2006).
14.Agnus Maddison, �gWorld Population, GDP, and Per Capita GDP, 1-2003 AD,�h at www.ggdc.net/maddison, viewed 8 August 2007; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 10.
15.Costs of burning coal from DSS Management Consultants Inc. and RWDI Air Inc., Cost-Benefit Analysis: Replacing Ontario�fs Coal-Fired Electricity Generation (Ontario, Canada: April 2005), p. v. 
16.U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration, �gWeekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices,�h at tonto.eia.doe .gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htm, viewed 8 August 2007.
17.International Center for Technology Assessment (ICTA), The Real Cost of Gasoline: An Analysis of the Hidden External Costs Consumers Pay to Fuel Their Automobiles (Washington, DC: 1998); ICTA, Gasoline Cost Externalities Associated with Global Climate Change: An Update to CTA�fs Real Price of Gasoline Report (Washington, DC: September 2004); ICTA, Gasoline Cost Externalities: Security and Protection Services: An Update to CTA�fs Real Price of Gasoline Report (Washington, DC: January 2005); Terry Tamminen, Lives Per Gallon: The True Cost of Our Oil Addiction (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2006), p. 60; adjusted to 2007 prices with Bureau of Economic Analysis, �gTable 3-Price Indices for Gross Domestic Product and Gross Domestic Purchases,�h GDP and Other Major Series, 1929-2007 (Washington, DC: August 2007); DOE, op. cit. note 16.
18.Munich Re, Topics Annual Review: Natural Catastrophes 2001 (Munich, Germany: 2002), pp. 16-17; value of China�fs wheat and rice harvests from USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, electronic database at www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline, updated 12 July 2007, using prices from International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Financial Statistics, electronic database, at ifs.apdi.net/imf.
19.�gForestry Cuts Down on Logging,�h China Daily, 26 May 1998; Erik Eckholm, �gChina Admits Ecological Sins Played Role in Flood Disaster,�h New York Times, 26 August 1998.
20.Eric Pfanner, �gFailure Brings Call for Tougher Standards: Accounting for Enron: Global Ripple Effects,�h International Herald Tribune, 17 January 2002; share price data from www.marketocracy.com, viewed 9 August 2007.
21.World Business Academy, �gInterface�fs Ray Anderson: Mid-Course Correction,�h Global Reconstruction, vol. 19, issue 5 (2 June 2005); Ray Anderson, �gA Call for Systemic Change,�h speech at the National Conference on Science, Policy, & the Environment: Education for a Secure and Sustainable Future, Washington, DC, 31 January 2003.
22.Jared Diamond, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (New York: Penguin Group, 2005).
23.Sandra Postel, Pillar of Sand (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1999), pp. 13-21. 
24.Ibid.
25.Ibid.
26.Robert McC. Adams quoted in Joseph Tainter, The Collapse of Complex Societies (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1988), p. 1.
27.�gMaya,�h Encyclopedia Britannica, online encyclopedia, viewed 13 September 2007.
28.Guy Gugliotta, �gThe Maya: Glory and Ruin,�h National Geographic, August 2007.
29.Maddison, op. cit. note 14; IMF, World Economic Outlook Database 2007, electronic database, at www.imf.org/external/pubs, updated April 2007.
30.Mathis Wackernagel et al., �gTracking the Ecological Overshoot of the Human Economy,�h Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 99, no. 14 (9 July 2002), pp. 9,266-71; Global Footprint Network, WWF, and Zoological Society of London, Living Planet Report 2006 (Oakland, CA: Global Footprint Network, 2006), p. 14.
31.Brown, op. cit. note 11, pp.101-02; Peter H. Gleick et al., The World�fs Water 2004-2005 (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2004), p. 88; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 10.
32.Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA), Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Synthesis (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2005); MA, Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Policy Responses (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2005), p. 180. 
33.Geoffrey Lean, �gA Disaster to Take Everyone�fs Breath Away,�h Independent (London), 24 July 2006; Daniel Nepstad, �gClimate Change and the Forest,�h Tomorrow�fs Amazonia: Using and Abusing the World�fs Last Great Forests (Washington, DC: The American Prospect, September 2007).
34.Lean, op. cit. note 33.
35.Ibid.; Nepstad, op. cit. note 33.
36.U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), ForesSTAT, electronic database, at faostat.fao.org, updated 22 December 2006; Patrick B. Durst et al., Forests Out of Bounds: Impacts and Effectiveness of Logging Bans in Natural Forests in Asia-Pacific (Bangkok: FAO, Asia-Pacific Forestry Commission, 2001); Eckholm, op. cit. note 19; Andy White et al., China and the Global Market for Forest Products: Transforming Trade to Benefit Forests and Livelihood (Washington, DC: Forest Trends, March 2006), p. 12.
37.FAO, The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2004 (Rome: 2004), pp. 24, 30-32; Ted Williams, �gThe Last Bluefin Hunt,�h in Valerie Harms et al., The National Audubon Society Almanac of the Environment (New York: Grosset/Putnam, 1994), p. 18; Konstantin Volkov, �gThe Caviar Game Rules,�h Reuters-IUCN Environmental Media Award winner, 2001; Camillo Catarci, World Markets and Industry of Selected Commercially-Exploited Aquatic Species (Rome: FAO, 2004).
38.The New Road Map Foundation, �gAll-Consuming Passion: Waking up from the American Dream,�h factsheet, EcoFuture, updated 17 January 2002.
39.USDA, op. cit. note 18; International Iron and Steel Institute, Steel Statistical Yearbook 2006 (Brussels: 2006), pp. 77-79.
40.IMF, op. cit. note 29; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 10. 
41.U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 10; FAO, op. cit. note 36.
42.Ward�fs Automotive Group, World Motor Vehicle Data 2006 (Southfield, MI: Ward�fs Automotive Group, 2006); area for paving calculated using 0.02 hectare per car from Lester R. Brown, �gPaving the Planet: Cars and Crops Competing for Land,�h Issue Alert (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 14 February 2001); USDA, op. cit. note 18.
43.BP, Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 (London: 2007); U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 10; International Energy Agency (IEA), Oil Market Report (Paris: July 2007).
44.U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 10. 
45.Carlotta Gall, �gOpium Harvest at Record Levels in Afghanistan,�h New York Times, 3 September 2006; Ania Lichtarowica, �gConquering Polio�fs Last Frontier,�h BBC News, 2 August 2007.
46.Fund for Peace and Carnegie Endowment, July/August 2005, op. cit. note 12.
47.World Bank, Global Monitoring Report 2007: Millennium Development Goals (Washington, DC: 2007) p. 5; Department for International Development, Why We Need to Work More Effectively in Fragile States (London: January 2005), pp. 27-28.
48.Fund for Peace and Carnegie Endowment, July/August 2005, 2006, and 2007, op. cit. note 12.
49.Fund for Peace and Carnegie Endowment, July/August 2005, op. cit. note 12.
50.Fund for Peace and Carnegie Endowment, July/August 2005, 2006, and 2007, op. cit. note 12.
51.Table 1-1 from Ibid.
52.U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 10; Fund for Peace and Carnegie Endowment, July/August 2007, op. cit. note 12.
53.U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 10; Fund for Peace and Carnegie Endowment, July/August 2007, op. cit. note 12; Richard Cincotta and Elizabeth Leahy, �gPopulation Age Structure and Its Relation to Civil Conflict: A Graphic Metric,�h Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Environmental Change and Security Program Report, vol. 12 (2006-07), pp. 55-58.
54.Lydia Polgreen, �gIn Congo, Hunger and Disease Erode Democracy,�h New York Times, 23 June 2006; Richard Brennan and Anna Husarska, �gInside Congo, An Unspeakable Toll,�h Washington Post, 16 July 2006; Lydia Polgreen, �gHundreds Killed Near Chad�fs Border With Sudan,�h New York Times, 14 November 2006.
55.Postel, op. cit. note 23, pp. 13-21; Gugliotta, op. cit. note 28.
56.UNAIDS, �gHIV and AIDS Estimates and Data, 2003 and 2005,�h 2006 Report on the Global Aids Epidemic (Geneva: May 2006).
57.U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 10.
58.Colin J. Campbell, �gShort Written Submission to the National Petroleum Council,�h e-mail to Frances Moore, Earth Policy Institute, 14 August 2007, p. 5; �gIceland Launches Energy Revolution,�h BBC News, 24 December 2001; John Vidal, �gSweden Plans to be World�fs First Oil-Free Economy,�h Guardian (London), 8 February 2006.
59.USDA, op. cit. note 18; Chicago Board of Trade, �gMarket Commentaries,�h for wheat and corn, at www.cbot.com, viewed various dates September 2007; historical commodity prices from futures.tradingcharts.com, viewed 3 October 2007.
60.Ethanol requirement in 2008 from Renewable Fuels Association, �gEthanol Biorefinery Locations,�h at www.ethanolrfa.org, updated 28 September 2007; 2008 grain harvest from Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee, Agricultural Projections to 2016 (Washington, DC: USDA, February 2007); 2006 corn used for ethanol from USDA Economic Research Service, Feed Grains Database, at www.ers.usda. gov/Data/FeedGrains, updated 28 September 2007; 2006 grain harvest from USDA, op. cit. note 18.
61.John B. Rae, The American Automobile Industry (Boston: Thwayne Publishers, 1984), pp. 87-97.
62.James Brooke, �gJapan Squeezes to Get the Most of Costly Fuel,�h New York Times, 4 June 2005; hybrid mileage based on new EPA estimates at www.fueleconomy.gov, viewed 23 August 2007; fleet average from Robert M. Heavenrich, Light Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2006 (Washington, DC: EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality, July 2006), updated using EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality, �gEPA Issues New Test Method for Fuel Economy Window Stickers,�h regulatory announcement (Washington, DC: EPA, December 2006).
63.Share of wind power generation in Denmark calculated using BP, op. cit. note 43, and Global Wind Energy Council, Global Wind 2006 Report (Brussels: 2007), p. 4, with capacity factor from National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Power Technologies Energy Data Book (Oak Ridge, TN: DOE, August 2006); Flemming Hansen, �gDenmark to Increase Wind Power to 50% by 2025, Mostly Offshore,�h Renewable Energy Access, 5 December 2006; Global Wind Energy Council, �gGlobal Wind Energy Markets Continue to Boom-2006 Another Record Year,�h press release (Brussels: 2 February 2007), with European per person consumption from European Wind Energy Association, �gWind Power on Course to Become Major European Energy Source by the End of the Decade,�h press release (Brussels: 22 November 2004); China water heaters calculated from Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century, Renewables Global Status Report, 2006 Update (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, 2006), p. 21, and from Bingham Kennedy, Jr., Dissecting China�fs 2000 Census(Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, June 2001); Iceland National Energy Authority and Ministries of Industry and Commerce, Geothermal Development and Research in Iceland (Reykjavik, Iceland: April 2006), p. 16. 
64.FAO, FAOSTAT, electronic database, at faostat.fao.org, updated 30 June 2007.
65.FAO, FISHSTAT Plus, electronic database, at www.fao.org, updated March 2007.
66.Se-Kyung Chong, �gAnmyeon-do Recreation Forest: A Millennium of Management,�h in Patrick B. Durst et al., In Search of Excellence: Exemplary Forest Management in Asia and the Pacific, Asia-Pacific Forestry Commission (Bangkok: FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, 2005), pp. 251-59.
67.Daniel Hellerstein, �gUSDA Land Retirement Programs,�h in USDA, Agricultural Resources and Environmental Indicators 2006 (Washington, DC: July 2006); USDA, Economic Research Service, Agri-Environmental Policy at the Crossroads: Guideposts on a Changing Landscape, Agricultural Economic Report No. 794 (Washington, DC: January 2001); USDA, op. cit. note 18. 
68.City of Amsterdam, �gBike Capital of Europe,�h at www.iamsterdam. com/visiting_exploring, viewed 23 August 2007; Molly O�fMeara, Reinventing Cities for People and the Planet, Worldwatch Paper 147 (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, June 1999), p. 47; population from U.N. Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision Population Database, electronic database, at esa.un.org/unup, updated 2006; Serge Schmemann, �gI Love Paris on a Bus, a Bike, a Train and in Anything but a Car,�h New York Times, 26 July 2007; Randy Kennedy, �gThe Day The Traffic Disappeared,�h New York Times Magazine, 20 April 2003, pp. 42-45.
69.CalCars, �gAll About Plug-In Hybrids,�h at www.calcars.org, viewed 22 August 2007.
70.Tim Johnston, �gAustralia Is Seeking Nationwide Shift to Energy-Saving Light Bulbs,�h New York Times, 21 February 2007; Rob Gillies, �gCanada Announces Greenhouse Gas Targets,�h Associated Press, 25 April 2007; Matthew L. Wald, �gA U.S. Alliance to Update the Light Bulb,�h New York Times, 14 March 2007; Ian Johnston, �gTwo Years to Change EU Light Bulbs,�h Scotsman (U.K.), 10 March 2007; Deborah Zabarenko, �gChina to Switch to Energy-Efficient Lightbulbs,�h Reuters, 3 October 2007; energy savings from lighting efficiency calculated by Earth Policy Institute using IEA, Light�fs Labour�fs Lost: Policies for Energy-Efficient Lighting (Paris: February 2006), and IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006 (Paris: 2006).

Chapter 2. Deteriorating Oil and Food Security
1.Oil production data from International Energy Agency (IEA), Oil Market Report (Paris: August 2001), includes oil, natural gas liquids, and processing gains; historical data from U.S. Department of Defense, Twentieth Century Petroleum Statistics (Washington, DC: 1945), cited in Christopher Flavin and Seth Dunn, �gReinventing the Energy System,�h in Lester R. Brown, Christopher Flavin, and Hilary French, State of the World 1999 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1999), p. 25; coal from Seth Dunn, �gCoal Use Continues Rebound,�h in Lester R. Brown et al., Vital Signs 1998 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1998), pp. 52-53. 
2.U.N. Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision (New York: 2006), p. 1; U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision Population Database, at esa.un.org/unpp, updated 2007; grain production in 1900 is author�fs estimate based on historic trends.
3.IEA, Oil Market Report (Paris: October 2007); Colin J. Campbell, �gShort Written Submission to the National Petroleum Council,�h e-mail to Frances Moore, Earth Policy Institute, 14 August 2007.
4.Michael T. Klare, �gEntering the Tough Oil Era,�h TomDispatch.com, 16 August 2007; Campbell, op. cit. note 3.  
5.Historic data from International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics, on-line database, at ifs.apdi.net, updated July 2007; recent wheat prices from Chicago Board of Trade, �gMarket Commentaries,�h at www.cbot.com, viewed various dates in September and October 2007.
6.Gary Schnitkey, Darrel Good, and Paul Ellinger, �gCrude Oil Price Variability and Its Impact on Break-Even Corn Prices,�h Farm Business Management, 30 May 2007; 2006 grain used for ethanol from U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Service (ERS), Feed Grains Database, at www.ers.usda.gov, updated 28 September 2007; 2006 grain harvest from USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, electronic database at www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline, updated 12 September 2007; 2008 ethanol requirement from Renewable Fuels Association, �gEthanol Biorefinery Locations,�h at www.ethanolrfa.org, updated 28 September 2007; 2008 grain harvest from Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee, Agricultural Projections to 2016 (Washington, DC: USDA, February 2007).
7.U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA), �gSelect Crude Oil Spot Prices,�h at www.eia.doe.gov/ emeu/international/crude1.html, updated 20 October 2007; John Vidal, �gThe End of Oil Is Closer Than You Think,�h Guardian (London), 21 April 2005; Alfred J. Cavallo, �gOil: Caveat Empty,�h Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, vol. 61, no. 3 (May/June 2005), pp. 16-18.
8.Vidal, op. cit. note 7; M. King Hubbert, �gNuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels,�h paper presented at the spring meeting of the Southern District Division of Production, American Petroleum Institute, March 1956.
9.DOE, EIA, �gTable 4.1: World Crude Oil Production, 1970-2006, Selected Countries,�h at www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilproduction.html, viewed 14 September 2007.
10.Production figures are for crude oil, including lease condensate, from DOE, op. cit. note 9; Vidal, op. cit. note 7; DOE, EIA, �gPetroleum (Oil) Production,�h International Petroleum Monthly, at www.eia.doe.gov/ ipm/supply.html, updated 12 July 2007.
11.DOE, op. cit. note 9; Klare, op. cit.note 4; Paula Dittrick, �gCGES: OPEC Pushing Limits of Oil Production Capacity,�h Oil and Gas Journal, 20 October 2004.
12.Neil Chatterjee, �g�ePeak Oil�f Gathering Sees $100 Crude This Decade,�h Reuters, 26 April 2005; Adam Porter, �gExpert Says Saudi Oil May Have Peaked,�h Al Jazeera, 20 February 2005; James D. Hamilton, �gRunning Dry?�h The Atlantic, October 2007; IEA, op. cit. note 3.
13.DOE, op. cit. note 9; Vidal, op. cit. note 7; Walter Youngquist, geologist, letter to author, 12 September 2007.
14.Michael T. Klare, �gThe Energy Crunch to Come,�h TomDispatch.com, 22 March 2005; Jad Mouawad, �gBig Oil�fs Burden of Too Much Cash,�h New York Times, 12 February 2005; Mark Williams, �gThe End of Oil?�h Technology Review, February 2005; Vidal, op. cit. note 7.
15.Peter Maass, �gThe Breaking Point,�h New York Times Magazine, 21 August 2005.
16.James Picerno, �gIf We Really Have the Oil,�h Bloomberg Wealth Manager, September 2002, p. 45; Klare, op. cit. note 14; Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert�fs Peak (New York: Hill and Wang, 2005); Richard C. Duncan and Walter Youngquist, �gEncircling the Peak of World Oil Production,�h Natural Resource Research, vol. 12, no. 4 (December 2003), p. 222; A. M. Samsan Bakhtiari, �gWorld Oil Production Capacity Model Suggests Output Peak by 2006-07,�h Oil and Gas Journal, 26 April 2004, pp. 18-20.
17.IEA, op. cit. note 3; IEA, Oil Market Report (Paris: May 2007). 
18.Fredrik Robelius, Giant Oil Fields-The Highway to Oil (Uppsala, Sweden: Uppsala University Press, 9 March 2007).
19.IEA, op. cit. note 3; IEA, Oil Market Report (Paris: July 1993); U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, op. cit. note 2; IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006 (Paris: 2006), pp. 85, 492. 
20.Robert Collier, �gCanadian Oil Sands: Vast Reserves Second to Saudi Arabia Will Keep America Moving, But at a Steep Environmental Cost,�h San Francisco Chronicle, 22 May 2005; Vidal, op. cit. note 7; Walter Youngquist, �gSurvey of Energy Resources: Oil Shale,�h Energy Bulletin, 24 April 2005.
21.Gargi Chakrabarty, �gShale�fs New Hope,�h Rocky Mountain News, 18 October 2004; Walter Youngquist, �gAlternative Energy Sources,�h in Lee C. Gerhard, Patrick Leahy, and Victor Yannacone, eds., Sustainability of Energy and Water through the 21st Century, Proceedings of the Arbor Day Farm Conference, 8-11 October 2000 (Lawrence, KS: Kansas Geological Survey, 2002), p. 65; Cavallo, op. cit. note 7. 
22.Collier, op. cit. note 20; Alberta Energy and Utilities Board, Alberta Energy Resource Industries Monthly Statistics, at www.eub.ca, viewed 8 August 2007; BP, BP Statistical Review of World Energy (London: June 2007).
23.�gExxon Says N. America Gas Production Has Peaked,�h Reuters, 21 June 2005; Collier, op. cit. note 20; Richard Heinberg, �gThe End of the Oil Age,�h Earth Island Journal, vol. 18, no. 3 (Fall 2003).
24.Youngquist, op. cit. note 20; Youngquist, op. cit. note 21, p. 64; Vidal, op. cit. note 7; WWF-Canada, �gOil Sands Pushing Canada Further from Kyoto, WWF and UK Think-Tank Warn,�h press release (Toronto: 6 June 2007).
25.Danielle Murray, �gOil and Food: A Rising Security Challenge,�h Eco-Economy Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 9 May 2005); �gEnergy Use in Agriculture,�h in USDA, U.S. Agriculture and Forestry Greenhouse Gas Inventory: 1990-2001, Technical Bulletin No. 1907 (Washington, DC: Global Change Program Office, Office of the Chief Economist, 2004), p. 94.
26.James Duffield, USDA, e-mail to Danielle Murray, Earth Policy Institute, 31 March 2005; James Duffield, USDA, e-mail to Frances Moore, Earth Policy Institute, 17 August 2007; USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, op. cit. note 6. 
27.Conservation Technology Information Center, �gConservation Tillage and Other Tillage Types in the United States-1990-2004,�h in 2004 National Crop Residue Management Survey (West Lafayette, IN: Purdue University, 2004); Duffield, e-mail to Murray, op. cit. note 26; tractor use and horse stocks from U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), FAOSTAT Statistics Database, at apps.fao.org, updated 4 April 2005.
28.Fertilizer energy use data from Duffield, e-mail to Murray, op. cit. note 26; USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, op. cit. note 6.
29.DOE, EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2003 (Washington, DC: 2004); �gTable 20: Energy Expenses for On-Farm Pumping of Irrigation Water by Water Source and Type of Energy: 2003 and 1998,�h in USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2003 Farm & Ranch Irrigation Survey, Census of Agriculture (Washington, DC: 2004); Fred Pearce, �gAsian Farmers Sucking the Continent Dry,�h New Scientist.com, 28 August 2004.
30.Murray, op. cit. note 25; DOE, EIA, �gTotal Primary Energy Consumption, All Countries, 1980-2004,�h at www.eia.doe.gov/emeu /international/energyconsumption.html, viewed 2 August 2007.
31.Murray, op. cit. note 25; M. Heller and G. Keoleian, Life-Cycle Based Sustainability Indicators for Assessment of the U.S. Food System (Ann Arbor, MI: Center for Sustainable Systems, University of Michigan, 2000), p. 42.
32.U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), Freight Shipments in America (Washington, DC: 2004), pp. 9-10; Andy Jones, Eating Oil-Food in a Changing Climate (London: Sustain and Elm Farm Research Centre, 2001), p. 2 of summary.
33.�gShipment Characteristics by Three-Digit Commodity and Mode of Transportation: 2002,�h in BTS and U.S. Census Bureau, 2002 Commodity Flow Survey (Washington, DC: December 2004); Jones, op. cit. note 32; James Howard Kunstler, author of Geography of Nowhere, in The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of The American Dream, documentary film (Toronto, ON: The Electric Wallpaper Co., 2004).
34.Heller and Keoleian, op. cit. note 31, p. 42; food energy content and packaging content calculated by Danielle Murray, Earth Policy Institute, using USDA nutritional information and packaging energy costs from David Pimentel and Marcia Pimentel, Food, Energy and Society (Boulder, CO: University Press of Colorado, 1996). 
35.Center for American Progress, Resources for Global Growth: Agriculture, Energy and Trade in the 21st Century (Washington, DC: 2005); USDA, ERS, �gPrice Spreads from Farm to Consumer,�h at www.ers.usda.gov/Data, updated 22 June 2007.
36.Murray, op. cit. note 25, pp. 1, 3; Duffield, e-mail to Murray, op. cit. note 26; John Miranowski, �gEnergy Demand and Capacity to Adjust in U.S. Agricultural Production,�h presentation at Agricultural Outlook Forum 2005, Arlington, VA, 24 February 2005, p.11.
37.1950-59 data from Worldwatch Institute, Signposts 2001, CD-Rom (Washington, DC: 2001); 1960-2006 data from USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, op. cit. note 6.
38.1950-59 grain data from Worldwatch Institute, op. cit. note 37; 1960-2006 data from USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, op. cit. note 6.
39.Worldwatch Institute, Signposts 2002, CD-Rom (Washington, DC: 2002); USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, op. cit. note 6. 
40.Lester R. Brown, Outgrowing the Earth (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2004), pp. 60-69.
41.USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, op. cit. note 6; U. N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, op. cit. note 2; FAO, FAOSTAT Food Security, electronic database, at www.fao.org/faostat, updated 30 June 2006. 
42.USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, op. cit. note 6; Brown, op. cit. note 40, p. 50.
43.USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, op. cit. note 6; Kelly Day Rubenstein et al., Crop Genetic Resources: An Economic Appraisal (Washington, DC: USDA Economic Research Service, May 2005), p. 19.
44.USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, op. cit. note 6; U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, op. cit. note 2.
45.USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, op. cit. note 6; U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, op. cit. note 2; Michael Ma, �gNorthern Cities Sinking as Water Table Falls,�h South China Morning Post, 11 August 2001; share of China�fs grain harvest from the North China Plain based on Hong Yang and Alexander Zehnder, �gChina�fs Regional Water Scarcity and Implications for Grain Supply and Trade,�h Environment and Planning A, vol. 33 (2001), and on USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, op. cit. note 6.
46.Shaobing Peng et al., �gRice Yields Decline with Higher Night Temperature from Global Warming,�h Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 6 July 2004, pp. 9971-75; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Summary for Policymakers in Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007), pp. 15-16.
47.F.O. Licht, �gToo Much Too Soon? World Ethanol Production to Break Another Record in 2005,�h World Ethanol and Biofuels Report, vol. 3, no. 20 (21 June 2005), pp. 429-35; DOE, World Crude Oil Prices, and U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices, at tonto.eia.doe.gov, viewed 31 July 2007; Renewable Fuels Association, op. cit. note 6.
48.F.O. Licht, �gWorld Ethanol Production 2007 to Hit New Record,�h World Ethanol and Biofuels Report, vol. 5, no. 17 (8 May 2007); corn used for ethanol in 2007 marketing year, from September 2007 to August 2008, from USDA, ERS, op. cit. note 6; corn ethanol conversion is author�fs estimate, based on Keith Collins, chief economist, USDA, statement before the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, 6 September 2006, p. 8; energy content of ethanol relative to gasoline from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), �gBioenergy Conversion Factors,�h at bioenergy.ornl.gov/papers/ misc/energy_ conv.html, viewed 3 August 2007; U.S. gasoline consumption in 2007 from �gTable 2: Energy Consumption by Sector and Source,�h in DOE, EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (Washington, DC: February 2007); USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, op. cit. note 6.
49.Sergio Barros, Brazil-Sugar-Annual Report-2006, GAIN Report BR6002 (Washington, DC: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, April 2006); CEPEA, Indicadores de Precos-Acucar Cristal, at www.cepea.esalq.usp.br/acucar, viewed 31 July 2007.
50.F.O. Licht, op. cit. note 48; �gStung by Bad Experience, Dutch Propose Tough Criteria for Importing Sustainable Biofuels,�h International Herald Tribune, 26 April 2007; �gEU Ministers Agree Biofuel Target,�h BBC News, 15 February 2007.  
51.F.O. Licht, op. cit. note 48; corn ethanol conversion author�fs estimate based on Collins, op. cit. note 48; F.O. Licht, �gE-5 Mandate to be Introduced by May,�h World Ethanol and Biofuels Report, vol. 4, no. 15 (7 April 2006), p. 355; Eric Unmacht, �gFaced with Soaring Oil Prices, Indonesia Turns to Biodiesel,�h Christian Science Monitor, 5 July 2006; Naveen Thukral, �gMalaysia Approves 52 Biodiesel Plants So Far,�h Reuters, 16 August 2006. 
52.USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, op. cit. note 6.
53.Ibid.; USDA, Crop Production 2006 Summary (Washington, DC: 2007).
54.Robert Wisner, e-mail to Janet Larsen, Earth Policy Institute, 2 January 2007, data updated 29 December 2006 in preparation for Iowa State University Crop Advantage seminar, Cedar Rapids and Burlington, IA, 4-5 January 2007; historical corn production data for Iowa at USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, �gQuick Stats,�h Agricultural Statistics Database, at www.nass.usda.gov, viewed 27 December 2006. 
55.Madelene Pearson and Danielle Rossingh, �gWheat Price Rises to Record $9 a Bushel on Global Crop Concerns,�h Bloomberg, 12 September 2007; wheat, soybeans, and corn from Chicago Board of Trade, op. cit. note 5; historical commodity prices from futures.tradingcharts.com, viewed 3 October 2007.
56.Ronald Buchanan, �gMexico Protest Prompts Food Price Assurance,�h Financial Times, 1 February 2007; Carolyn Said, �gNothing Flat about Tortilla Prices: Some in Mexico Cost 60 Percent More, Leading to a Serious Struggle for Low-Income People,�h San Francisco Chronicle, 13 January 2007; �gItaly Urged to go on Pasta Strike,�h BBC News, 13 September 2007; Karen Atwood, �gRising Price of Wheat Signals End of Low-Cost Food, Warns Premier Chief,�h The Independent (London), 5 September 2007.
57.Lester R. Brown, �gDistillery Demand for Grain to Fuel Cars Vastly Understated: World May be Facing Highest Grain Prices in History,�h Eco-Economy Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 4 January 2007); corn ethanol conversion is author�fs estimate, based on Collins, op. cit. note 48; energy content of ethanol relative to gasoline from ORNL, op. cit. note 48; U.S. gasoline consumption in 2007 from DOE, op. cit. note 48; USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, op. cit. note 6.
58.Ward�fs Communications, Ward�fs World Motor Vehicle Data 2006 (Southfield, MI: 2006), p. 240; income calculations from World Bank, �gGNI Per Capita 2006, Atlas Method and PPP,�h World Development Indicators, at siteresources.worldbank.org, updated 1 July 2007, and from U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, op. cit. note 2.
59.Corn used for ethanol in 2007 from USDA, Feed Grains Database, op. cit. note 6; corn ethanol conversion author�fs estimate based on Collins, op. cit. note 48; energy content of ethanol relative to gasoline from ORNL, op. cit. note 48; U.S. gasoline consumption in 2007 from DOE, op. cit. note 48.
60.California Cars Initiative (CalCars), �gAll About Plug-In Hybrids (PHEVs),�h at www.calcars.org/vehicles.html, viewed 27 December 2006. 
61.Patrick Barta, �gJatropha Plant Gains Steam in Global Race for Biofuels,�h Wall Street Journal, 24 August 2007. 
62.Ibid. 
63.Ibid.; Ben Macintyre, �gPoison Plant Could Help to Cure the Planet,�h The Times (London), 28 July 2007. 
64.Barta, op. cit. note 61; Rebecca Renner, �gGreen Gold in a Shrub: Entrepreneurs Target the Jatropha Plant as the Next Big Biofuel,�h Scientific American, June 2007.
65.IEA, op. cit. note 3; 2030 from DOE, EIA, International Energy Outlook 2007 (Washington, DC: May 2007), p. 29, and from IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006, op. cit. note 19, p. 86; Thomas Wheeler, �gIt�fs the End of the World as We Know It,�h Baltimore Chronicle, 3 August 2004. 
66.�gTable 1-12: U.S. Sales or Deliveries of New Aircraft, Vehicles, Vessels, and Other Conveyances,�h in BTS, National Transportation Statistics 2005 (Washington, DC: DOT, 2005).
67.Darrin Qualman, �g�ePeak Oil�f: The Short, Medium, and Long-Term,�h Union Farmer Monthly, vol. 56, no. 4 (August 2005). 
68.Oliver Prichard, �gSUV Drivers Reconsider,�h Philadelphia Inquirer, 1 June 2005; Danny Hakim and Jonathan Fuerbringer, �gFitch Cuts G.M. to Junk, Citing Poor S.U.V. Sales,�h New York Times, 24 May 2005; Fitch Corporate Ratings, at fitchratings.com, viewed 8 August 2007.
69.U.N. Human Settlements Programme, The State of the World�fs Cities 2004/2005 (London: Earthscan, 2004), pp. 24-25; U.N. Population Division, Urban Agglomerations 2005, wall chart (New York: March 2006).
70.U.S. Census Bureau, �gAmerican Spend More Than 100 Hours Commuting to Work Each Year, Census Bureau Reports,�h press release (Washington, DC: 30 March 2005).
71.Wheeler, op. cit. note 65.
72.Micheline Maynard, �gSurging Fuel Prices Catch Most Airlines Unprepared, Adding to the Industry�fs Gloom,�h New York Times, 26 April 2005; �gRevealed: The Real Cost of Air Travel,�h The Independent (London), 29 May 2005; DOT and FAA, FAA Aerospace Forecasts-Fiscal Years 2006-2017 (Washington, DC: 2006), p. 63.
73.�gTable 1-4: Public Road and Street Mileage in the United States by Type of Surface,�h in BTS, National Transportation Statistics 2007 (Washington, DC: DOT, 2007).
74.Gerhard Metschies, �gPain at the Pump,�h Foreign Policy, July-August 2007.
75.Edith M. Lederer, �gU.N.: Hunger Kills 18,000 Kids Each Day,�h Associated Press, 17 February 2007; Iraq Coalition Casualty Count, icasualties.org/oif, updated 31 July 2007. 
76.Loganaden Naiken, �gKeynote Paper: FAO Methodology for Estimating the Prevalence of Undernourishment,�h at www.fao.org/docrep/ 005/y4249e/y4249e06.htm, viewed 1 August 2007; FAO, op. cit. note 41.
77.C. Ford Runge and Benjamin Senauer, �gHow Biofuels Could Starve the Poor,�h Foreign Affairs, May/June 2007.
78.Missy Ryan, �gCommodity Boom Eats into Aid for World�fs Hungry,�h Reuters, 5 September 2007.
79.FAO, Crop Prospects and Food Situation, no. 3, May 2007; Fund for Peace and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, �gThe Failed States Index 2007,�h Foreign Policy, July/August 2007; U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects, op. cit. note 2.
80.Lederer, op. cit. note 75.

Chapter 3. Rising Temperatures and Rising Seas
1.U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP), Global Outlook for Ice and Snow (Nairobi: 2007).
2.Ibid.
3.U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Production, Supply and Distribution, electronic database, at www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline, updated 11 June 2007; Janet Larsen, �gRecord Heat Wave in Europe Takes 35,000 Lives,�h Eco-Economy Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 9 October 2003); USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, �gCrop Production,�h news release (Washington, DC: 12 August 2005).
4.Janet Larsen, �gSetting the Record Straight: More than 52,000 Europeans Died from Heat in Summer 2003,�h Eco-Economy Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 26 July 2006); National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, The 9/11 Commission Report (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 2004).
5.�gAwful Weather We�fre Having,�h The Economist, 2 October 2004; Richard Milne, �gHurricanes Cost Munich Re Reinsurance,�h Financial Times, 6 November 2004.
6.J. Hansen, NASA�fs Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), �gGlobal Temperature Anomalies in 0.1 C,�h at data.giss.nasa.gov/ gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts.txt, updated June 2007; climate monitoring stations from Reto A. Ruedy, GISS, e-mail to Janet Larsen, Earth Policy Institute, 14 May 2003.
7.Temperature change calculated from Hansen, op. cit. note 6; crops from USDA, op. cit. note 3; USDA, Grain: World Markets and Trade (Washington, DC: various months).
8.Carbon dioxide data from Pieter Tans, �gTrends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide-Mauna Loa,�h NOAA/ESRL, at www.cmdl.noaa.gov, viewed 16 October 2007, with historical estimate in data from Seth Dunn, �gCarbon Emissions Dip,�h in Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 1999 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1999), pp. 60-61; fossil fuel emissions calculated from International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006 (Paris: 2006), p. 493; deforestation emissions from Vattenfall, Global Mapping of Greenhouse Gas Abatement Opportunities up to 2030: Forestry Sector Deep-Dive (Stockholm: June 2007), p. 27. 
9.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Summary for Policymakers, in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007), p. 13; IPCC, �gIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Its Assessment Reports,�h fact sheet, at www.ipcc.ch/press, viewed 27 July 2007.
10.IPCC, Summary for Policymakers, op. cit. note 9, p. 15.  
11.National Center for Atmospheric Research and UCAR Office of Programs, �gDrought�fs Growing Reach: NCAR Study Points to Global Warming as Key Factor,�h press release (Boulder, CO: 10 January 2005); Aiguo Dai, Kevin E. Trenberth, and Taotao Qian, �gA Global Dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: Relationship with Soil Moisture and Effects of Surface Warming,�h Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol. 5 (December 2004), pp. 1117-30.
12.Donald McKenzie et al., �gClimatic Change, Wildfire, and Conservation,�h Conservation Biology, vol. 18, no. 4 (August 2004), pp. 890-902. 
13.Camille Parmesan and Hector Galbraith, Observed Impacts of Global Climate Change in the U.S. (Arlington, VA: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2004); DeNeen L. Brown, �gSigns of Thaw in a Desert of Snow,�h Washington Post, 28 May 2002; IPCC, Summary for Policymakers, op. cit. note 9, p. 13.
14.Patty Glick, Fish Out of Water: A Guide to Global Warming and Pacific Northwest Rivers (Seattle: National Wildlife Federation, March 2005); Elizabeth Gillespie, �gGlobal Warming May Be Making Rivers Too Hot: Cold-Water Fish Will Struggle, Report Says,�h Seattle Post-Intelligencer, 24 March 2005.
15.Douglas B. Inkley et al., Global Climate Change and Wildlife in North America (Bethesda, MD: The Wildlife Society, December 2004); J. R. Pegg, �gGlobal Warming Disrupting North American Wildlife,�h Environment News Service, 16 December 2004.
16.John E. Sheehy, International Rice Research Institute, e-mail to Janet Larsen, Earth Policy Institute, 1 October 2002; Pedro Sanchez, �gThe Climate Change-Soil Fertility-Food Security Nexus,�h speech, Sustainable Food Security for All by 2020, Bonn, Germany, 4-6 September 2002; USDA, op. cit. note 3.
17.Mohan K. Wali et al., �gAssessing Terrestrial Ecosystem Sustainability,�h Nature & Resources, October-December 1999, pp. 21-33.
18.Sheehy, op. cit. note 16; Sanchez, op. cit. note 16.
19.Shaobing Peng et al., �gRice Yields Decline with Higher Night Temperature from Global Warming,�h Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 6 July 2004, pp. 9971-75; Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, �gWarmer Evening Temperatures Lower Rice Yields,�h press release (Washington, DC: 29 June 2004).
20.K. S. Kavi Kumar and Jyoti Parikh, �gSocio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture,�h International Review for Environmental Strategies, vol. 2, no. 2 (2001), pp. 277-93; U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision Population Database, at esa.un.org/unpp, updated 2007.
21.UNEP, op. cit. note 1, p. 131. 
22.Emily Wax, �gA Sacred River Endangered by Global Warming,�h Washington Post, 17 June 2007; UNEP, op. cit. note 1, p. 131.
23.Clifford Coonan, �gChina�fs Water Supply Could be Cut Off as Tibet�fs Glaciers Melt,�h The Independent (London), 31 May 2007; UNEP, op. cit. note 1, p. 131; rice irrigation from �gYangtze River-Agriculture,�h Encyclopedia Britannica, online encyclopedia, viewed 25 July 2007.
24.Jonathan Watts, �gHighest Icefields Will Not Last 100 Years, Study Finds: China�fs Glacier Research Warns of Deserts and Floods Due to Warming,�h Guardian (London), 24 September 2004; �gGlacier Study Reveals Chilling Prediction,�h China Daily, 23 September 2004.
25.UNEP, op. cit. note 1, p. 131.  
26.Lonnie G. Thompson, �gDisappearing Glaciers Evidence of a Rapidly Changing Earth,�h American Association for the Advancement of Science Annual Meeting, San Francisco, February 2001; �gThe Peak of Mt Kilimanjaro As It Has Not Been Seen for 11,000 Years,�h Guardian (London), 14 March 2005; Bancy Wangui, �gCrisis Looms as Rivers Around Mt. Kenya Dry Up,�h East Africa Standard, 1 July 2007.
27.Eric Hansen, �gHot Peaks,�h OnEarth, fall 2002, p. 8.
28.Leslie Josephus, �gGlobal Warming Threatens Double-Trouble for Peru: Shrinking Glaciers and a Water Shortage,�h Associated Press, 12 February 2007; Citation World Atlas (Union, NJ: Hammond World Atlas Corporation, 2004).
29.Josephus, op. cit. note 28; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 20.
30.James Painter, �gPeru�fs Alarming Water Truth,�h BBC News, 12 March 2007; U.N. Population Division, Urban Agglomerations 2005 Wall Chart, at www.un.org/esa/population, viewed 28 September 2007.
31.Michael Kiparsky and Peter Gleick, Climate Change and California Water Resources: A Survey and Summary of the Literature (Oakland, CA: Pacific Institute, 2003); Timothy Cavagnaro et al., Climate Change: Challenges and Solutions for California Agricultural Landscapes (Sacramento, CA: California Climate Change Center, 2006).
32.John Krist, �gWater Issues Will Dominate California�fs Agenda This Year,�h Environmental News Network, 21 February 2003.
33.Michael J. Scott et al., �gClimate Change and Adaptation in Irrigated Agriculture-A Case Study of the Yakima River,�h in UCOWR/NIWR Conference, Water Allocation: Economics and the Environment (Carbondale, IL: Universities Council on Water Resources, 2004); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, �gGlobal Warming to Squeeze Western Mountains Dry by 2050,�h press release (Richland, WA: 16 February 2004).
34.UNEP, op. cit. note 1, p. 131; Mehrdad Khalili, �gThe Climate of Iran: North, South, Kavir (Desert), Mountains,�h San�fate Hamlo Naql, March 1997, pp. 48-53.
35.UNEP, op. cit. note 1, p. 103; IPCC, Summary for Policymakers, op. cit. note 9, p. 13; Paul Brown, �gMelting Ice Cap Triggering Earthquakes,�h Guardian (London), 8 September 2007. 
36.Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), Impacts of a Warming Arctic (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 2004); ACIA Web site, at www.acia.uaf.edu, updated 13 July 2005; �gRapid Arctic Warming Brings Sea Level Rise, Extinctions,�h Environment News Service, 8 November 2004; UNEP, op. cit. note 1, p. 103.
37.J. R. Pegg, �gThe Earth is Melting, Arctic Native Leader Warns,�h Environment News Service, 16 September 2004.
38.ACIA, op. cit. note 36; Steven Armstrup et al., �gRecent Observations of Intraspecific Predation and Cannibalism among Polar Bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea,�h Polar Biology, vol. 29, no. 11 (October 2006), pp. 997-1002.
39.Julienne Stroeve et al., �gArctic Sea Ice Decline: Faster than Forecast,�h Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 34 (May 2007); National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), �gArctic Sea Ice Shatters all Previous Record Lows,�h press release (Boulder, CO: 1 October 2007); Stroeve quoted in �gArctic Ice Retreating 30 Years Ahead of Projections,�h Environment News Service, 30 April 2007.
40.Marc Kaufman, �gDecline in Winter Arctic Ice Linked to Greenhouse Gases,�h Washington Post, 14 September 2006; Josefino C. Comiso, �gAbrupt Decline in the Arctic Winter Sea Ice Cover,�h Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 33, 30 September 2006. 
41.David Adam, �gMeltdown Fear as Arctic Ice Cover Falls to Record Winter Low,�h Guardian (London), 15 May 2006.
42.NSIDC, �gProcesses: Thermodynamics: Albedo,�h at nsidc.org/seaice/ processes/albedo.html, viewed 26 July 2007.
43.UNEP, op. cit. note 1.
44.H. Jay Zwally et al., �gSurface Melt-Induced Acceleration of Greenland Ice-Sheet Flow,�h Science, vol. 297 (12 July 2002), pp. 218-22. 
45.J. L. Chen, C. R. Wilson, and B. D. Tapley, �gSatellite Gravity Measurements Confirm Accelerated Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet,�h Science, vol. 313 (29 September 2006), pp. 1958-60; Isabella Velicogna and John Wahr, �gAcceleration of Greenland Ice Mass Loss in Spring 2004,�h Nature, vol. 443 (21 September 2006), pp. 329-31; S. B. Luthke et al., �gRecent Greenland Ice Mass Loss from Drainage System from Satellite Gravity Observations,�h Science, vol. 314 (24 November 2006), pp. 1286-89; �gGravity Measurements Confirm Greenland�fs Glaciers Precipitous Meltdown,�h Scientific American, 19 October 2006.
46.U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, �gAntarctica: Fact Sheet,�h at www.eia.doe.gov, September 2000.
47.University of Colorado at Boulder, �gNASA, CU-Boulder Study Shows Vast Regions of West Antarctica Melted in Recent Past,�h press release (Boulder: 15 May 2007).
48.�gBreakaway Bergs Disrupt Antarctic Ecosystem,�h Environment News Service, 9 May 2002; �gGiant Antarctic Ice Shelves Shatter and Break Away,�h Environment News Service, 19 March 2002.
49.NSIDC, �gAntarctic Ice Shelf Collapses,�h at nsidc.org/iceshelves/ larsenb2002, 19 March 2002; �gBreakaway Bergs Disrupt Antarctic Ecosystem,�h op. cit. note 48; �gGiant Antarctic Ice Shelves Shatter and Break Away,�h op. cit. note 48.
50.�gGiant Antarctic Ice Shelves Shatter and Break Away,�h op. cit. note 48; Vaughan quoted in Andrew Revkin, �gLarge Ice Shelf in Antarctica Disintegrates at Great Speed,�h New York Times, 20 March 2002.
51.Michael Byrnes, �gNew Antarctic Iceberg Split No Threat,�h Reuters, 20 May 2002.
52.Gordon McGranahan et al., �gThe Rising Tide: Assessing the Risks of Climate Change and Human Settlements in Low Elevation Coastal Zones,�h Environment and Urbanization, vol. 18, no. 1 (April 2007), pp. 17-37.
53.Ibid.
54.Ibid.; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 20. 
55.International Institute for Environment and Development, �gClimate Change: Study Maps Those at Greatest Risk from Cyclones and Rising Seas,�h press release (London: 28 March 2007); Catherine Brahic, �gCoastal Living-A Growing Global Threat,�h New Scientist.com, 28 March 2007; UNEP, op. cit. note 1.
56.Thomas R. Knutson and Robert E. Tuleya, �gImpact of CO2-Induced Warming on Simulated Hurricane Intensity and Precipitation: Sensitivity to the Choice of Climate Model and Convective Parameterization,�h Journal of Climate, vol. 17, no. 18 (15 September 2004), pp. 3477-95.
57.Lester R. Brown, �gGlobal Warming Forcing U.S. Coastal Population to Move Inland,�h Eco-Economy Update (Washington DC: Earth Policy Institute, 16 August 2006); water and power from Connie Kline, �gNew Orleans Looks Like Katrina Hit Yesterday; U.S. Needs to Step Up,�h Ventura County Star, 6 August 2006; garbage collection from Susan Saulny, �gDespite a City�fs Hopes, an Uneven Repopulation,�h New York Times, 30 July 2006; telecommunications from Gary Rivlin, �gPatchy Recovery in New Orleans,�h New York Times, 5 April 2006; sewer system from �gKatrina Recovery Deemed a Mixed Bag,�h Associated Press, 15 August 2006.
58.Peter Grier, �gThe Great Katrina Migration,�h Christian Science Monitor, 12 September 2005; Louisiana Recovery Authority, Migration Patterns: Estimates of Parish Level Migrations Due to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (Baton Rouge, LA: August 2007), pp. 7-9.
59.National Weather Service National Hurricane Center, NHC Archive of Hurricane Seasons, at www.nhc.noaa.gov, updated June 2007; Kevin E. Trenberth, �gWarmer Oceans, Stronger Hurricanes,�h Scientific American, July 2007; Joseph Treaster, �gHigh Winds, Then Premiums,�h New York Times, 26 September 2006.
60.Janet N. Abramovitz, �gAverting Unnatural Disasters,�h in Lester R. Brown et al., State of the World 2001 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2001) pp. 123-42.
61.Storm death toll from National Climatic Data Center, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, �gMitch: The Deadliest Atlantic Hurricane Since 1780,�h at www.ncdc.noaa.gov, updated 1 July 2004; Flores quoted in Arturo Chavez et al., �gAfter the Hurricane: Forest Sector Reconstruction in Honduras,�h Forest Products Journal, November/December 2001, pp. 18-24; gross domestic product from International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook Database, at www.imf.org, updated April 2003.
62.Michael Smith, �gBad Weather, Climate Change Cost World Record $90 Billion,�h Bloomberg, 15 December 2004; �gInsurers See Hurricane Costs as High as $23 Billion,�h Reuters, 4 October 2004.
63.�gAwful Weather We�fre Having,�h op. cit. note 5; Munich Re, Topics Geo Annual Review: Natural Catastrophes 2006 (Munich: 2007), p. 47.
64.�gDisaster and Its Shadow,�h The Economist, 14 September 2002, p. 71; �gMoody�fs Downgrades Munich Re�fs Ratings to �eAa1,�f�h Insurance Journal, 20 September 2002; Moody�fs Investor Service, �gIssuer Research�h for Munich Re, Hanover Re, and Swiss Re, at www.moodys.com, viewed 26 July 2007.
65.Tim Hirsch, �gClimate Change Hits Bottom Line,�h BBC News, 15 December 2004.
66.Munich Re, �gNatural Disasters: Billion-$ Insurance Losses,�h in Louis Perroy, �gImpacts of Climate Change on Financial Institutions�f Medium to Long Term Assets and Liabilities,�h presented to the Staple Inn Actuarial Society, 14 June 2005; Munich Re, Topics Geo Significant Natural Catastrophes in 2004, 2005, and 2006 (Munich: 2005, 2006, and 2007.
67.Munich Re, Topics Annual Review: Natural Catastrophes 2001 (Munich: 2002), pp. 16-17; value of China�fs wheat and rice harvests from USDA, op. cit. note 3, using prices from IMF, International Financial Statistics, electronic database, at ifs.apdi.net/imf, updated June 2007.
68.Munich Re, �gNatural Disasters,�h op. cit. note 66; Munich Re, Significant Natural Catastrophes in 2005 and 2006, op. cit. note 66.
69.Andrew Dlugolecki, �gClimate Change and the Financial Services Industry,�h speech delivered at the opening of the UNEP Financial Services Roundtable, Frankfurt, Germany, 16 November 2000; �gClimate Change Could Bankrupt Us by 2065,�h Environment News Service, 24 November 2000.
70.Sir Nicholas Stern, The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change (London: HM Treasury, 2006), pp vi-ix.
71.S. Pacala and R. Socolow, �gStabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies,�h Science, vol. 305 (13 August 2004), pp. 968-72.
72.Ibid.
73.�gEarth�fs Climate Approaches Dangerous Tipping Point,�h Environment News Service, 1 June 2007; James Hansen et al., �gClimate Change and Trace Gases,�h Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, vol. 365 (2007), pp. 1925-54.
74.Wax, op. cit. note 22; Coonan, op. cit. note 23; Watts, op. cit. note 24; �gGlacier Study Reveals Chilling Prediction,�h op. cit. note 24.
75.World Bank, World Development Report 1999/2000 (New York: Oxford University Press, September 1999).
76.Brown, op. cit. note 35.
77.Ibid.
78.Adam, op. cit. note 41.
79.IPCC, Summary for Policymakers, op. cit. note 9, p. 33; Sergey A. Zimov et al., �gPermafrost and the Global Carbon Budget,�h Science, vol. 312, no. 3780 (16 June 2006), pp. 1612-13.
80.Figure of 400 ppm calculated using fossil fuel emissions from G. Marland et al., �gGlobal, Regional, and National CO2 Emissions,�h in Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change (Oak Ridge, TN: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2007), and land use change emissions from R. A. Houghton and J. L. Hackler, �gCarbon Flux to the Atmosphere from Land-Use Changes,�h in Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change (Oak Ridge, TN: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2002), with decay curve cited in J. Hansen et al., �gDangerous Human-Made Interference with Climate: A GISS ModelE Study,�h Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol. 7 (2007), pp. 2287-312. 

Chapter 4. Emerging Water Shortages
1.U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP), Africa�fs Lakes: Atlas of Our Changing Environment (Nairobi: 2006); M. T. Coe and J. A. Foley, �gHuman and Natural Impacts on the Water Resources of the Lake Chad Basin,�h Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), vol. 106, no. D4 (2001), pp. 3349-56; population information from U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision Population Database, at esa.un.org/unpp, updated 2007.
2.Water use tripling from I. A. Shiklomanov, �gAssessment of Water Resources and Water Availability in the World,�h Report for the Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World (St. Petersburg, Russia: State Hydrological Institute, 1998), cited in Peter H. Gleick, The World�fs Water 2000-2001 (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2000), p. 52; grain production from U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Production, Supply and Distribution, electronic database, at www.fas.usda.gov/psd/psdonline, updated 11 June 2007.
3.Emily Wax, �gA Sacred River Endangered by Global Warming,�h Washington Post, 17 June 2007; Clifford Coonan, �gChina�fs Water Supply Could be Cut Off as Tibet�fs Glaciers Melt,�h The Independent (London), 31 May 2007.
4.Jacob W. Kijne, Unlocking the Water Potential of Agriculture (Rome: U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 2003), p. 26; water use from Shiklomanov, op. cit. note 2, p. 53.
5.Michael Ma, �gNorthern Cities Sinking as Water Table Falls,�h South China Morning Post, 11 August 2001; share of China�fs grain harvest from the North China Plain based on Hong Yang and Alexander Zehnder, �gChina�fs Regional Water Scarcity and Implications for Grain Supply and Trade,�h Environment and Planning A, vol. 33 (2001), and on USDA, op. cit. note 2.
6.Ma, op. cit. note 5. 
7.World Bank, China: Agenda for Water Sector Strategy for North China (Washington, DC: April 2001), pp. vii, xi.
8.John Wade, Adam Branson, and Xiang Qing, China Grain and Feed Annual Report 2002 (Beijing: USDA, 21 February 2002).
9.Wheat production from USDA, op. cit. note 2.
10.World Bank, op. cit. note 7, p. viii; calculations based on 1,000 tons of water to produce 1 ton of grain in FAO, Yield Response to Water (Rome: 1979).
11.Number of farmers and well investment from Peter H. Gleick et al., The World�fs Water 2006-2007 (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2006), p. 148; number of wells and rate of aquifer depletion from Fred Pearce, �gAsian Farmers Sucking the Continent Dry,�h New Scientist.com, 28 August 2004.
12.Pearce, op. cit. note 11; Tamil Nadu population from 2001 census, �gTamil Nadu at a Glance: Area and Population,�h at www.tn.gov.in.
13.Pearce, op. cit. note 11.
14.Grain production and imports from USDA, op. cit. note 2; John Briscoe, India�fs Water Economy: Bracing for a Turbulent Future (New Delhi: World Bank, 2005); population data from U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 1.
15.Energy used for groundwater pumping from Tingju Zhu et al., �gEnergy Price and Groundwater Extraction for Agriculture: Exploring the Energy-Water-Food Nexus at the Global and Basin Level,�h presented at Linkages Between Energy and Water Management for Agriculture in Developing Countries, Hyderabad, India, January 2007; coal from U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Country Analysis Briefs: India and Country Analysis Briefs: China (Washington, DC: updated January 2007 and August 2006).
16.USDA, Agricultural Resources and Environmental Indicators 2000 (Washington, DC: February 2000), Chapter 2.1, p. 6; irrigated share calculated from FAO, ResourceSTAT, electronic database, at faostat.fao.org/site/405/default.aspx, updated 30 June 2007; harvest from USDA, op. cit. note 2; Sandra Postel, Pillar of Sand (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1999), p. 77.
17.USDA, �gTable 10: Irrigation 2002 and 1997,�h 2002 Census of Agriculture, vol. 1 (Washington, DC: June 2004), pp. 319-26.
18.U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 1; fall in water table from �gPakistan: Focus on Water Crisis,�h U.N. Integrated Regional Information Networks News, 17 May 2002.
19.�gPakistan: Focus on Water Crisis,�h op. cit. note 18; Garstang quoted in �gWater Crisis Threatens Pakistan: Experts,�h Agence France-Presse, 26 January 2001.
20.Sardar Riaz A. Khan, �gDeclining Land Resource Base,�h Dawn (Pakistan), 27 September 2004.
21.USDA, op. cit. note 2.
22.U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 1; overpumping from Chenaran Agricultural Center, Ministry of Agriculture, according to Hamid Taravati, publisher, Iran, e-mail to author, 25 June 2002.
23.U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 1; Craig S. Smith, �gSaudis Worry as They Waste Their Scarce Water,�h New York Times, 26 January 2003; grain production from USDA, op. cit. note 2.
24.Smith, op. cit. note 23.
25.Ibid.
26.U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 1; Yemen�fs water situation from Christopher Ward, �gYemen�fs Water Crisis,�h based on a lecture to the British Yemeni Society in September 2000, July 2001; Christopher Ward, The Political Economy of Irrigation Water Pricing in Yemen (Sana�fa, Yemen: World Bank, November 1998).
27.Marcus Moench, �gGroundwater: Potential and Constraints,�h in Ruth S. Meinzen-Dick and Mark W. Rosegrant, eds., Overcoming Water Scarcity and Quality Constraints (Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute, October 2001).
28.U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 1; Yemen�fs water situation from Ward, Political Economy of Irrigation Water Pricing, op. cit. note 26; grain production and imports from USDA, op. cit. note 2, updated 13 September 2005; Fund for Peace and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, �gThe Failed States Index 2007,�h Foreign Policy, July/August 2007, p. 57.
29.Deborah Camiel, �gIsrael, Palestinian Water Resources Down the Drain,�h Reuters, 12 July 2000. 
30.U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 1; Tushaar Shah et al., The Global Groundwater Situation: Overview of Opportunities and Challenges (Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute, 2000); Karin Kemper, �gGroundwater Management in Mexico: Legal and Institutional Issues,�h in Salman M. A. Salman, ed., Groundwater: Legal and Policy Perspectives, Proceedings of a World Bank Seminar (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1999), p. 117; U.N. Development Programme (UNDP), Human Development Report 2006 (Gordonsville, VA: Palgrave Macmillan, 2006), p. 146.
31.Colorado, Ganges, Indus, and Nile rivers from Postel, op. cit. note 16, pp. 59, 71-73, 94, 261-62; Yellow River from Lester R. Brown and Brian Halweil, �gChina�fs Water Shortages Could Shake World Food Security,�h World Watch, July/August 1998, p. 11.
32.Water use tripling from Shiklomanov, op. cit. note 2, p. 52.
33.Sandra Postel, Last Oasis (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1997), pp. 38-39; World Commission on Dams, Dams and Development: A New Framework for Decision-Making (London: Island Press, 2000), p. 8.
34.Postel, op. cit. note 16, pp. 261-62; Jim Carrier, �gThe Colorado: A River Drained Dry,�h National Geographic, June 1991, pp. 4-32.
35.UNEP, Afghanistan: Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment (Geneva: 2003), p. 60.
36.Brown and Halweil, op. cit. note 31.
37.Postel, op. cit. note 16, pp. 71, 146. 
38.Ibid., pp. 56-58; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 1; Fund for Peace and Carnegie Endowment, op. cit. note 28. p. 57.
39.Moench, op. cit. note 27; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 1.
40.Curtis J. Richardson et al., �gThe Restoration Potential of the Mesopotamian Marshes of Iraq,�h Science, vol. 307 (25 February 2005), pp. 1307-10.
41.Janet Larsen, �gDisappearing Lakes, Shrinking Seas,�h Eco-Economy Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 7 April 2005).
42.Megan Goldin, �gIsrael�fs Shrinking Sea of Galilee Needs Miracle,�h Reuters, 14 August 2001; Jordan River diminishing from Annette Young, �gMiddle East Conflict Killing the Holy Water,�h The Scotsman, 12 September 2004.
43.Caroline Hawley, �gDead Sea �eto Disappear by 2050,�f�h BBC, 3 August 2001; Gidon Bromberg, �gWater and Peace,�h World Watch, July/August 2004, pp. 24-30.
44.Quirin Schiermeier, �gEcologists Plot to Turn the Tide for Shrinking Lake,�h Nature, vol. 412 (23 August 2001), p. 756.
45.�gSea to Disappear within 15 Years,�h News 24, 22 July 2003; Caroline Williams, �gLong Time No Sea,�h New Scientist, 4 January 2003, pp. 34-37.
46.Fred Pearce, �gPoisoned Waters,�h New Scientist, 21 October 1995, pp. 29-33; Williams, op. cit. note 45.
47.Larsen, op. cit. note 41; NASA, Earth Observatory, �gAral Sea,�h at earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=16277, viewed 25 January 2005; Alex Kirby, �gKazakhs �eto Save North Aral Sea,�f�h BBC, 29 October 2003. 
48.Li Heng, �g20 Natural Lakes Disappear Each Year in China,�h People�fs Daily, 21 October 2002; �gGlaciers Receding, Wetlands Shrinking in River Fountainhead Area,�h China Daily, 7 January 2004.
49.Jim Carlton, �gShrinking Lake in Mexico Threatens Future of Region,�h Wall Street Journal, 3 September 2003; U. N. Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: 2005 Revision, electronic database, at esa.un.org/unup, updated October 2006. 
50.Water to make steel from Postel, op. cit. note 33; 1,000 tons of water for 1 ton of grain from FAO, op. cit. note 10; price of steel from International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics, at ifs.apdi.net, July 2007; wheat prices from Chicago Board of Trade, �gMarket Commentaries,�h various dates, at www.cbot.com.
51.Noel Gollehon and William Quinby, �gIrrigation in the American West: Area, Water and Economic Activity,�h Water Resources Development, vol. 16, no. 2 (2000), pp. 187-95; Postel, op. cit. note 33, p. 137.
52.R. Srinivasan, �gThe Politics of Water,�h Info Change Agenda, issue 3 (October 2005); U. N. Population Division, op. cit. note 49.
53.Srinivasan, op. cit. note 52; Pearce, op. cit. note 11.
54.�gChina Politics: Growing Tensions Over Scarce Water,�h The Economist, 21 June 2004.
55.Shah et al., op. cit. note 30.
56.Gollehon and Quinby, op. cit. note 51; The Water Strategist, various issues, at www.waterstrategist.com; Jedidiah Brewer et al., �gWater Markets in the West: Prices, Trading and Contractual Forms,�h Arizona Legal Studies Discussion Paper No. 07-07 (8 February 2007).
57.Arkansas River basin from Joey Bunch, �gWater Projects Forecast to Fall Short of Needs: Study Predicts 10% Deficit in State,�h Denver Post, 22 July 2004.
58.Dean Murphy, �gPact in West Will Send Farms�f Water to Cities,�h New York Times, 17 October 2003; Tim Molloy, �gCalifornia Water District Approves Plan to Pay Farmers for Irrigation Water,�h Associated Press, 13 May 2004.
59.U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 1. 
60.FAO, op. cit. note 10.
61.Grain from USDA, op. cit. note 2. 
62.Grain from USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Grain: World Markets and Trade (Washington, DC: various years).
63.U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 1; grain from USDA, op. cit. note 2.
64.Nile River flow from Postel, op. cit. note 16, p. 77; grain imports from USDA, op. cit. note 2; calculation based on 1,000 tons of water for 1 ton of grain from FAO, op. cit. note 10.
65.U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 1; grain from USDA, op. cit. note 2.
66.David Seckler, David Molden, and Randolph Barker, �gWater Scarcity in the Twenty-First Century,�h Water Brief 1 (Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute, 1999), p. 2.
67.USDA, op. cit. note 2; FAO, op. cit. note 16.
68.UNDP, op. cit. note 30, p. 135.
69.FAO, AQUASTAT, electronic database, at www.fao.org/nr/aquastat, updated 11 February 2003.
70.Country averages from ibid.; World Resources Institute, Annual Renewable Water Supply per Person by River Basin, 1995, at earthtrends.wri.org/maps_spatial, updated 2000.
71.�gWorld Conflict Chronology,�h table in Gleick et al., op. cit. note 11,
pp. 192-213; UNDP, op. cit. note 30, pp. 177-78; �gAt Least 14 Killed as Kenyan Tribes Clash over Scarce Water Supplies,�h Associated Press, 25 January 2005; �gPakistanis Clash Over Water, 12 Hurt,�h Reuters, 20 June 2006. 
72.Naser I. Faruqui, �gResponding to the Water Crisis in Pakistan,�h Water Resources Development, vol. 20, no. 2 (June 2004), pp. 177-92. 
73.Pete Harrison, �gIraq Calls for Water Treaty to Avert Crisis,�h Reuters, 23 August 2007.
74.UNDP, op. cit. note 30, p. 216.
75.Population projection from U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 1. 

Chapter 5. Natural Systems Under Stress
1.Walter C. Lowdermilk, Conquest of the Land Through 7,000 Years, USDA Bulletin No. 99 (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Natural Resources Conservation Service, 1939). 
2.Ibid., p. 10.
3.U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), �gFAO/WFP Crop and Food Assessment Mission to Lesotho Special Report,�h at www.fao.org, viewed 29 May 2002; Michael Grunwald, �gBizarre Weather Ravages Africans�f Crops,�h Washington Post, 7 January 2003.
4.FAO, Number of Undernourished Persons, at www.fao.org/faostat/ foodsecurity, updated 30 June 2006.
5.Species Survival Commission, 2000 IUCN Red List of Threatened Species (Gland, Switzerland, and Cambridge, U.K.: World Conservation Union-IUCN, 2000), p. 1. 
6.Teresa Cerojano, �gDecades of Illegal Logging Blamed for High Death Toll in Philippine Storm,�h Associated Press, 1 December, 2004; Thailand from Patrick B. Durst et al., Forests Out of Bounds: Impacts and Effectiveness of Logging Bans in Natural Forests in Asia-Pacific (Bangkok: FAO, Asia-Pacific Forestry Commission, 2001); Munich Re, �gMunich Re�fs Review of Natural Catastrophes in 1998,�h press release (Munich: 19 December 1998); Harry Doran, �gHuman Activities Aid Force of Nature: Massive Destruction Has Worsened the Floods Which Have Struck Throughout History, But Lessons Are Being Learned,�h South China Morning Post, 24 July 2003.
7.World forested area from FAO, Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005 (Rome: 2006), p. 16.
8.Ibid., pp. xii-xvi.
9.Forest Frontiers Initiative, The Last Frontier Forests: Ecosystems and Economies on the Edge (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute (WRI), 1997). 
10.FAO, ForesSTAT, electronic database, at faostat.fao.org, updated 22 December 2006. 
11.Alain Marcoux, �gPopulation and Deforestation,�h in Population and the Environment (Rome: FAO, 2000); March Turnbull, �gLife in the Extreme,�h Africa Geographic Online, 4 April 2005. 
12.Nigel Sizer and Dominiek Plouvier, Increased Investment and Trade by Transnational Logging Companies in Africa, the Caribbean, and the Pacific (Belgium: World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and WRI Forest Frontiers Initiative, 2000), pp. 21-35; Lester R. Brown, �gNature�fs Limits,�h in Lester R. Brown et al., State of the World 1995 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1995), p. 9.
13.Peter S. Goodman and Peter Finn, �gCorruption Stains Timber Trade,�h Washington Post, 1 April 2007; Evan Osnos, �gChina Feeds U.S. Demand for Wood as Forests Suffer,�h Chicago Tribune, 18 December 2006. 
14.Goodman and Finn, op. cit. note 13.
15.Andy White et al., China and the Global Market for Forest Products (Washington, DC: Forest Trends, 2006).
16.Atlantic forest loss from World Land Trust, �gREGUA Project, Brazil,�h at www.worldlandtrust.org/projects/brazil.htm, viewed 6 September 2007; remaining Amazon calculated from WWF, �gAmazon Deforestation,�h at www.panda.org/about_wwf/where_we_work/ latin_america _and_caribbean, viewed 6 September 2007, and from Raymond Colitt, �gAmazon Deforestation Drops Sharply: Brazilian Gov�ft,�h Reuters, 10 August 2007. 
17.Christian Tsoumou, �gBritain Gives US$98 Mln to Protect CongoForests,�h Reuters, 29 March 2007.
18.Mario Rautner, Martin Hardiono, and Raymond J. Alfred, Borneo: Treasure Island at Risk (Frankfurt: WWF Germany, June 2005), p. 7.
19.U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision Population Database, at esa.un.org/unpp, updated 2007; FAO, op. cit. note 7, p. 193.
20.U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 19; �gMadagascar�fs Rainforest Faces Destruction,�h Guardian (London), 29 June 2003.
21.Eneas Salati and Peter B. Vose, �gAmazon Basin: A System in Equilibrium,�h Science, vol. 225 (13 July 1984), pp. 129-38.
22.Philip Fearnside quoted in Barbara J. Fraser, �gPutting a Price on the Forest,�h LatinamericaPress.org, 10 November 2002; Philip M. Fearnside, �gThe Main Resources of Amazonia,�h paper for presentation at the Latin American Studies Association XX International Congress, Guadalajara, Mexico, 17-19 April 1997; Geoffrey Lean, �gDying Forest: One Year to Save the Amazon,�h The Independent, 23 July 2006; Geoffrey Lean, �gA Disaster to Take Everyone�fs Breath Away,�h The Independent, 24 July 2006.
23.U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 19; Malawi Ministry of Mines, Natural Resources, and the Environment, State of the Environment Report for Malawi 2002 (Lilongwe, Malawi: 2004); FAO, op. cit. note 7, p. 196. 
24.Anscombe quoted in Charles Mkoka, �gUnchecked Deforestation Endangers Malawi Ecosystems,�h Environment News Service, 16 November 2004.
25.Patrick B. Durst et al., Forests Out of Bounds: Impacts and Effectiveness of Logging Bans in Natural Forests in Asia-Pacific (Bangkok: FAO, Asia-Pacific Forestry Commission, 2001); Zhu Chunquan, Rodney Taylor, and Feng Guoqiang, China�fs Wood Market, Trade and Environment (Monmouth Junction, NJ, and Beijing: Science Press USA Inc. and WWF International, 2004). 
26.One third is author�fs estimate.
27.Yang Youlin, Victor Squires, and Lu Qi, eds., Global Alarm: Dust and Sandstorms from the World�fs Drylands (Bangkok: Secretariat of the U.N. Convention to Combat Desertification, 2002), pp. 15-28.
28.John Steinbeck, The Grapes of Wrath (New York: Viking Penguin, Inc., 1939).
29.FAO, The State of Food and Agriculture 1995 (Rome: 1995), p. 175.
30.Ibid.; USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, electronic database, at www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline, updated 12 July 2007; yield from FAO, ProdSTAT, electronic database, at faostat.fao.org, updated 30 June 2007.
31.U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP), Mongolia: State of the Environment 2002 (Pathumthani, Thailand: Regional Resource Centre for Asia and the Pacific, 2001), pp. 3-7; USDA, op. cit. note 30; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 19.
32.National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Observatory, �gDust Storm off Western Sahara Coast,�h at earth observatory.nasa.gov, viewed 9 January 2005.
33.Paul Brown, �g4x4s Replace the Desert Camel and Whip Up a Worldwide Dust Storm,�h Guardian (London), 20 August 2004. 
34.Ibid. 
35.Asif Farrukh, Pakistan Grain and Feed Annual Report 2002 (Islamabad, Pakistan: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, 2003). 
36.UNEP, Africa Environment Outlook: Past, Present, and Future Perspectives (Nairobi: 2002), at www.unep.org/dewa/Africa.
37.Land area estimate from Stanley Wood, Kate Sebastian, and Sara J. Scherr, Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems: Agroecosystems (Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute and WRI, 2000), p. 3; livestock counts from FAO, op. cit. note 30. 
38.Number of pastoralists from FAO, The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003 (Rome 2003), p.15; FAO, op. cit. note 30. 
39.FAO, op. cit. note 30; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 19. 
40.Robin P. White, Siobhan Murray, and Mark Rohweder, Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems: Grassland Ecosystems (Washington, DC: WRI, 2000); FAO, op. cit. note 30; U.N. Population Fund (UNFPA), State of World Population 2006 (New York: 2006), p. 98; Southern African Development Coordination Conference, SADCC Agriculture: Toward 2000 (Rome: FAO, 1984). 
41.U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 19; FAO, op. cit. note 30.
42.FAO, op. cit. note 30.
43.B. S. Sathe, �gDairy/Milk Production,�h in Livestock Investment Opportunities in India, FAO Web site, at www.fao.org/DOCREP/ ARTICLE/AGRIPPA/657_en00.htm, viewed 9 September 2005. 
44.H. Dregne et al., �gA New Assessment of the World Status of Desertification,�h Desertification Control Bulletin, no. 20, 1991.
45.U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 19.
46.�gCase Studies of Sand-Dust Storms in Africa and Australia,�h in Yang Youlin, Victor Squires, and Lu Qi, eds., Global Alarm: Dust and Sandstorms from the World�fs Drylands (Bangkok: Secretariat of the U.N. Convention to Combat Desertification, 2002), pp. 123-66.
47.Government of Nigeria, Combating Desertification and Mitigating the Effects of Drought in Nigeria, Revised National Report on the Implementation of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (Nigeria: April 2002); U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 19; livestock from FAO, op. cit. note 30.
48.Iranian News Agency, �gOfficial Warns of Impending Desertification Catastrophe in Southeast Iran,�h BBC International Reports, 29 September 2002.
49.UNEP, Afghanistan: Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment (Geneva: 2003), p. 52.
50.Wang Tao et al., �gA Study on Spatial-temporal Changes of Sandy Desertified Land During Last 5 Decades in North China,�h Acta Geographica Sinica, vol. 59 (2004), pp. 203-12. 
51.Wang Tao, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute (CAREERI), Chinese Academy of Sciences, e-mail to author, 4 April 2004; Wang Tao, �gThe Process and Its Control of Sandy Desertification in Northern China,�h CAREERI, Chinese Academy of Sciences, seminar on desertification, held in Lanzhou, China, May 2002.
52.Ann Schrader, �gLatest Import From China: Haze,�h Denver Post, 18 April 2001; Brown, op. cit. note 33. 
53.Howard W. French, �gChina�fs Growing Deserts Are Suffocating Korea,�h New York Times, 14 April 2002.
54.For number of dust storms in China, see Table 1-1 in Lester R. Brown, Janet Larsen, and Bernie Fischlowitz Roberts, The Earth Policy Reader (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2002), p. 13.
55.U.S. Embassy, �gDesert Mergers and Acquisitions,�h Beijing Environment, Science, and Technology Update (Beijing: 19 July 2002), p. 2.
56.See Table 5-2 in Lester Brown, Outgrowing the Earth (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2005), pp. 86-87.
57.FAO, FISHSTAT Plus, electronic database, at www.fao.org, updated March 2007.
58.FAO, The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2006 (Rome: 2007), p. 29.
59.Ransom A. Myers and Boris Worm, �gRapid Worldwide Depletion of Predatory Fish Communities,�h Nature, vol. 432 (15 May 2003), pp. 280-83; Charles Crosby, �g�eBlue Frontier�f is Decimated,�h Dalhousie News, 11 June 2003.
60.Myers and Worm, op. cit. note 59; Crosby, op. cit. note 59.
61.Myers and Worm, op. cit. note 59.
62.Stephen Leahy, �gAtlantic Bluefin Going Way of Northern Cod,�h Interpress Service News Agency, 24 August 2007; Ted Williams, �gThe Last Bluefin Hunt,�h in Valerie Harms et al., The National Audubon Society Almanac of the Environment (New York: Grosset/Putnam, 1994), p. 185; Callum Roberts, The Unnatural History of the Sea (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2007), p. 280; Konstantin Volkov, �gThe Caviar Game Rules,�h Reuters-IUCN Environmental Media Award winner, 2001; 2007 quota from UNEP, �g2006 Ban on Caviar Lifted,�h press release (Geneva: 2 January 2007).
63.Harvests from National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Annual Commercial Landing Statistics, electronic database, at www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/st1/commercial/ landings/annual_landings.html, updated 12 February 2007. 
64.Caroline Southey, �gEU Puts New Curbs on Fishing,�h Financial Times, 16 April 1997. 
65.Alex Kirby, �gUK Cod Fishing �eCould be Halted�f,�h BBC News, 6 November 2000; ; Norway Ministry of Fisheries and Coastal Affairs, �gNorway and EU Agree Fish Quotas for 2006,�h press release (Oslo, Norway: 2 December 2005); European Commission, �gCouncil Decision on 2007 Fish Quotas Confirms Gradual Approach to Sustainable Fisheries,�h press release (Brussels: 21 December 2006); European Commission, �gOutcome of the Fisheries Council of 16-20 December 2002,�h at ec.europa.eu/fisheries/press_corner, updated 23 December 2002; Indrani Lutchman et al., Indicators of Environmental Integration: Final Report (London: Institute for European Environmental Policy, June 2006).
66.Diadie Ba, �gSenegal, EU Prepare for Fisheries Deal Tussle,�h Reuters, 28 May 2001; Charles Clover, The End of the Line: How Overfishing is Changing the World and What We Eat (London: Ebury Press, 2004), ppd. 37-46.
67.Clover, op. cit. note 66, p. 38.
68.John W. Miller, �gGlobal Fishing Trade Depletes African Waters,�h Wall Street Journal, 23 July 2007.
69.Lauretta Burke et al., Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems: Coastal Ecosystems (Washington, DC: WRI, 2001), pp. 19, 51; coastal wetland loss in Italy from Lester R. Brown and Hal Kane, Full House (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1994).
70.Clive Wilkinson, ed., Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2004 (Townsville, Australia: Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network, 2004), p. 9.
71.Lauretta Burke and Jonathan Maidens, Reefs at Risk in the Caribbean (Washington, DC: WRI, 2004), pp. 12-14, 27-31.
72.Mohammed Kotb et al., �gStatus of Coral Reefs in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in 2004,�h in Wilkinson, op. cit. note 70, pp. 137-39.
73.UNEP and Global Programme of Action for the Protection of the Marine Environment from Land-Based Activities, The State of the Marine Environment: Trends and Processes (The Hague: 2006); Nancy Rabalais and Gene Turner, �gDead Zone Size Near Top End,�h press release (Cocodrie, LA: Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium, 28 July 2007). 
74.UNEP, �gFurther Rise in Number of Marine �eDead Zones�f,�h press release (Beijing and Nairobi: 19 October 2006); UNEP, GEO Yearbook 2003 (Nairobi: 2004), p. 58. 
75.Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD Environmental Outlook (Paris: 2001), pp. 109-20.
76.David Quammen, �gPlanet of Weeds,�h Harper�fs Magazine, October 1998.
77.Species Survival Commission, 2007 IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, at www.iucnredlist.org, updated 12 September 2007. 
78.Ibid.; TRAFFIC, Food for Thought: The Utilization of Wild Meat in Eastern and Southern Africa (Cambridge, U.K.: 2000).
79.Danna Harman, �gBonobos�f Threat: Hungry Humans,�h Christian Science Monitor, 7 June 2001; �gVideo: New Bonobo Ape Population Discovered,�h National Geographic News, 6 March 2007.
80.Species Survival Commission, op. cit. note 77; �gGreat Indian Bustard Facing Extinction,�h India Abroad Daily, 12 February 2001; Cagan Sekercioglu, Gretchen C. Daily, and Paul R. Ehrlich, �gEcosystem Consequences of Bird Declines,�h Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 101, no. 52 (28 December 2004). 
81.Michael McCarthy, �gMystery of the Silent Woodlands: Scientists Are Baffled as Bird Numbers Plummet,�h Independent (London), 25 February 2005; British Trust for Ornithology, �gTough Time for Woodland Birds,�h press release (Thetford, Norfolk, U.K.: 25 February 2005); J. A. Thomas et al., �gComparative Losses of British Butterflies, Birds, and Plants and the Global Extinction Crisis,�h Science, vol. 303 (19 March 2004), pp. 1879-81.
82.Dennis Van Engelsdorp et al., �gAn Estimate of Managed Colony Losses in the Winter of 2006-2007: A Report Commissioned by the Apiary Inspectors of America,�h American Bee Journal (July 2007), pp. 599-603; Alexei Barrionuevo, �gBees Vanish, and Scientists Race for Reasons,�h New York Times, 24 April 2007. 
83.Joel Garreau, �gHoney, I�fm Gone,�h Washington Post, 1 June 2007; Erik Stokstad, �gPuzzling Decline of U.S. Bees Linked to Virus from Australia,�h Science, vol. 317, issue 5843 (7 September 2007), pp. 1304-05.
84.Species Survival Commission, 2004 IUCN Red List of Threatened Species (Gland, Switzerland, and Cambridge, U.K.: IUCN, 2004), p. 89; Species Survival Commission, op. cit. note 77. 
85.James R. Spotila et al., �gPacific Leatherback Turtles Face Extinction,�h Nature, vol. 405 (1 June 2000), pp. 529-30; �gLeatherback Turtles Threatened,�h Washington Post, 5 June 2000; Pilar Santidrian Tomillo et al., �gReassessment of the Leatherback Turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) Nesting Population at Parque Nacional Marino Las Baulas, Costa Rica: Effects of Conservation Efforts,�h Chelonian Conservation and Biology, vol. 6, no. 1 (2007), pp. 54-62.
86.David Kaimowitz et al., Hamburger Connection Fuels Amazon Destruction (Jakarta, Indonesia: Center for International Forestry Research, 2004).
87.Conservation International, �gThe Brazilian Cerrado,�h at www.bio diversityhotspots.org, viewed 19 July 2007; Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, �gHotspots Revisited: Cerrado,�h at www.biodiversity science.org/publications/hotspots/Cerrado.html, viewed 19 July 2007; butterfly diversity from Helena C. Morais et al., �gCaterpillar Seasonality in a Central Brazilian Cerrado,�h Revista de Biologia Tropical, vol. 47, no. 4 (1999), pp. 1025-33.
88.Species Survival Commission, op. cit. note 77. 

Chapter 6. Early Signs of Decline
1.U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision-Volume III: Analytical Report (New York: 2004), pp. 136-58, 169.
2.Cancer in China from World Health Organization (WHO), �gDeath by Causes, Sex and Mortality Stratum in WHO Regions, Estimates for 2002,�h World Health Report 2004 (Geneva: May 2004); U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision Population Database, electronic database, at esa.un.org/unpp, updated 2007; �gNumber of Inmates in State or Federal Prisons and Local Jails by Gender, Race, Hispanic Origin, and Age, June 30, 2006,�h Bureau of Justice Statistics, U.S. Department of Justice, at www.ojp.gov/bjs/prisons.htm, updated 18 July 2007; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), �gAg 101: Agricultural Demographics,�h fact sheet, at www.epa.gov/oecaagct, viewed 3 September 2007.
3.Life expectancy from WHO, World Health Statistics 2007 (Geneva: 2007), pp. 22-31; hunger from U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Number of Undernourished Persons, at www.fao.org/faostat/foodsecurity, updated 30 June 2006.
4.FAO, op. cit. note 3; WHO, �gObesity and Overweight,�h fact sheet (Geneva: September 2006).
5.FAO, The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 (Rome: 2006), pp. 8, 32, 33; FAO, The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2002 (Rome: 2002); U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 2.
6.FAO, The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2005 (Rome: 2005), p. 33.
7.FAO, The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2004 (Rome: 2004).
8.Gary Gardner and Brian Halweil, �gNourishing the Underfed and Overfed,�h in Lester R. Brown et al., State of the World 2000 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2000), pp. 70-73.
9.WHO and UNICEF, Global Water Supply and Sanitation Assessment 2000 Report (New York: 2000), pp. v, 2; WHO, op. cit. note 2. 
10.Stable populations compiled from Population Reference Bureau, Datafinder, electronic database, at www.prb.org/DataFind/datafinder7.htm, updated 2007; doubling projections from U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 2.
11.�gPopulation That Has Attained Tertiary Education (2003),�h in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Education at a Glance 2005 (Paris: 2005); children not enrolled from United Nations, Millennium Development Goals Report 2007 (New York: 2007), p. 11; adult illiteracy from UNESCO, EFA Global Monitoring Report 2007: Strong Foundations (Paris: 2006), p. 2.
12.Hilaire A. Mputu, Literacy and Non-Formal Education in the E-9 Countries (Paris: UNESCO, 2001), pp. 5-13; UNESCO Institute for Statistics, �gNational Illiteracy Rates Youths (15-24) and Adults (15+),�h at www.uis.unesco.org, updated 19 June 2007. 
13.Gene B. Sperling, �gToward Universal Education,�h Foreign Affairs, September/October 2001, pp. 7-13.
14.Access to safe water from World Bank, Global Monitoring Report 2007: Millennium Development Goals (Washington, DC: 2007), p. 13; Peter H. Gleick, Dirty Water: Estimated Deaths from Water-Related Disease 2000-2020 (Oakland, CA: Pacific Institute, 2002); U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 2.
15.Deaths calculated from U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (New York: 2005), and from WHO/ UNICEF, World Malaria Report 2005 (Geneva: 2005); Sachs from Center for International Development at Harvard University and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, �gExecutive Summary for Economics of Malaria,�h at www.rbm.who.int, viewed 3 August 2005.
16.More deaths from AIDS than wars from Lawrence K. Altman, �gU.N. Forecasts Big Increase in AIDS Death Toll,�h New York Times, 3 July 2002.  
17.Total deaths and historical estimates calculated using UNAIDS statistics in Worldwatch Institute, Signposts 2004, CD-Rom (Washington, DC: 2004) and in UNAIDS, AIDS Epidemic Update (Geneva: various years); sub-Saharan Africa from UNAIDS, 2006 AIDS Epidemic Update (Geneva: December 2006), p. 10. 
18.UNAIDS, 2006 Report on the Global Aids Epidemic (Geneva: May 2006), pp. 2-6, 320, 488. 
19.UNAIDS, 2004 Report on the Global Aids Epidemic (Geneva: 2004), pp. 39-66; FAO, �gThe Impact of HIV/AIDS on Food Security,�h 27th Session of the Committee on World Food Security, Rome, 28 May-1 June 2001.
20.UNAIDS, op. cit. note 18, p. 95.
21.UNAIDS, UNICEF, and U.S. Agency for International Development, Children on the Brink 2004: A Joint Report on New Orphan Estimates and a Framework for Action (Washington, DC: 2004), p. 29; Michael Grunwald, �gSowing Harvests of Hunger in Africa,�h Washington Post, 17 November 2002.
22.Stephen Lewis, press briefing, New York, 8 January 2003; Edith M. Lederer, �gLack of Funding for HIV/AIDS is Mass Murder by Complacency, Says U.N. Envoy,�h Associated Press, 9 January 2003.
23.Alex de Waal, �gWhat AIDS Means in a Famine,�h New York Times, 19 November 2002.
24.Sarah Janssen, Gina Solomon, and Ted Schettler, Chemical Contaminants and Human Disease: A Summary of Evidence (Boston: Alliance for a Healthy Tomorrow, 2004); Geoffrey Lean, �gUS Study Links More than 200 Diseases to Pollution,�h Independent News (London), 14 November 2004.
25.Jonathan Watts, �gBeijing Blames Pollutants for Rise in Killer Cancers,�h Guardian (London), 22 May 2007. 
26.Ibid. 
27.Pan Yue, �gView: China�fs Green Debt,�h Daily Times (Pakistan), 1 December 2006. 
28.Kent Ewing, �gBehind the Hysteria About China�fs Tainted Goods,�h Asia Times, 18 July 2007; EPA, �gAbout EPA,�h at www.epa.gov, viewed 25 July 2007.
29.Jane Houlihan et al., Body Burden: The Pollution in Newborns (Washington, DC: Environmental Working Group, 2005).
30.Bernie Fischlowitz-Roberts, �gAir Pollution Fatalities Now Exceed Traffic Fatalities by 3 to 1,�h Eco-Economy Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, September 2002), citing WHO, �gAir Pollution,�h Fact Sheet 187 (Geneva: revised September 2000); traffic accident deaths from WHO, �gEstimated Total Deaths, by WHO Member State, 2002,�h table downloaded from WHO Web site, �gBurden of Disease Statistics,�h www.who.int/healthinfo; U.S. deaths from Joel Schwartz, quoted in Harvard School of Public Health, �gAir Pollution Deadlier Than Previously Thought,�h press release (Cambridge, MA: 2 March 2000).
31.C. Pritchard, D. Baldwin, and A. Mayers, �gChanging Patterns of Adult (45-74 years) Neurological Deaths in the Major Western World Countries 1979-1987,�h Public Health, vol. 118, issue 4 (June 2004), pp. 268-83; Juliette Jowit, �gPollutants Cause Huge Rise in Brain Diseases: Scientists Alarmed as Number of Cases Triples in 20 Years,�h The Observer (London), 15 August 2004; A. Ascherio et al., �gPesticide Exposure and Risk for Parkinson�fs Disease,�h Annals of Neurology, vol. 60, issue 2 (August 2006), pp. 197-203.
32.Global Environment Facility, U.N. Development Programme (UNDP), and United Nations Industrial Development Organization, �gRemoval of Barriers to the Introduction of Cleaner Artisanal Gold Mining and Extraction Technologies,�h UNDP Global Mercury Project Inception Document GLO/01/G34 (Washington, DC: April 2002), p. 8; Ilan Levin and Eric Schaeffer, Dirty Kilowatts: America�fs Most Polluting Power Plants (Washington, DC: Environmental Integrity Project, July 2007), p. 2; EPA, �gEPA Decides Mercury Emissions from Power Plants Must Be Reduced,�h press release (Washington, DC: 15 December 2000).
33.EPA, Office of Science and Technology, �gNational Listing of Fish Advisories: 2005-06 National Listing,�h fact sheet (Washington, DC: July 2007); Kathryn Mahaffey, EPA, Methylmercury: Epidemiology Update, presentation at The National Forum on Contaminants in Fish, San Diego, CA, January 2004, at www.epa.gov/waterscience.
34.Anne Platt McGinn, Why Poison Ourselves? A Precautionary Approach to Synthetic Chemicals, Worldwatch Paper 153 (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, 2000), p. 7; 200 chemicals in body from Pete Myers, plenary discussion on Emerging Environmental Issues, at USAID Environmental Officers Training Workshop, �gMeeting the Environmental Challenges of the 21st Century,�h Airlie Center, Warrenton, VA, 26 July 1999.
35.EPA, �gToxics Release Inventory (TRI) Program,�h fact sheet, at www.epa.gov/tri, updated 9 June 2006; EPA, �gEPA Issues New Toxics Report, Improves Means of Reporting,�h press release (Washington, DC: 11 April 2001).
36.Calculated from U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2007 (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 2007).
37.Eric Lipton, �gThe Long and Winding Road Now Followed by New York City�fs Trash,�h New York Times, 24 March 2001.
38.Lester R. Brown, �gNew York: Garbage Capital of the World,�h Eco-Economy Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, April 2002); calculations by author, updated with The City of New York Department of Sanitation, �gDSNY-Fact Sheet,�h updated 27 October 2003; Kirk Johnson, �gTo City�fs Burden, Add 11,000 Tons of Daily Trash,�h New York Times, 24 March 2001; Lhota quoted in Lipton, op. cit. note 37.
39.Gilmore quoted in Lipton, op. cit. note 37.
40.Joel Kurth, �gN.J. Piles Demolition Trash on Michigan,�h Detroit News, 28 December 2004; City of Toronto, Canada, Solid Waste Management Division, �gFacts about Toronto�fs Trash,�h Fact Sheet, at www.toronto.ca/garbage/facts.htm, updated 10 August 2006; Lipton, op. cit. note 37.
41.Niki Kitsantonis, �gAthens Is in the Grip of a Garbage Crisis,�h International Herald Tribune, 28 January 2007.
42.�gFast Urbanization Dumps Garbage in Chinese Cities,�h Xinhua News Agency, 18 August 2006.
43.Gunther Baechler, �gWhy Environmental Transformation Causes Violence: A Synthesis,�h Environmental Change and Security Project Report, Issue 4 (spring 1998), pp. 24-44.
44.U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Production, Supply, and Distribution Country Reports (Washington, DC: October 1990); 2007 grainland area from USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, electronic database, at www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline, updated 10 August 2007; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 2.
45.�gTime for Action on Sudan�h (editorial), New York Times, 18 June 2004; �gA First Step to Save Darfur�h (editorial), New York Times, 3 August 2007; Coalition for International Justice, �gEstimates from Retrospective Mortality Surveys in Darfur and Chad Displacement Camps, Circa February 2003-April 2005,�h at www.cij.org, April 2005; �gSudan,�h in U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, The World Fact Book, at www.cia.gov/library/publications, updated 6 September 2007. 
46.U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 2; livestock from FAO, ProdSTAT, electronic database, at faostat.fao.org, updated 30 June 2007. 
47.Somini Sengupta, �gWhere the Land is a Tinderbox, the Killing Is a Frenzy,�h New York Times, 16 June 2004; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 2; Government of Nigeria, Combating Desertification and Mitigating the Effects of Drought in Nigeria, National Report on the Implementation of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (Nigeria: November 1999).
48.Sengupta, op. cit. note 47.
49.Ibid.
50.James Gasana, �gRemember Rwanda?�h World Watch, September/October 2002, pp. 24-32.
51.Ibid.
52.U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, International Programs Center, International Database, at www.census.gov/ipc/www/ idbacc.html, updated 26 April 2005; Gasana, op. cit. note 50.
53.Gasana, op. cit. note 50; Emily Wax, �gAt the Heart of Rwanda�fs  Horror: General�fs History Offers Clues to the Roots of Genocide,�h Washington Post, 21 September 2002.
54.U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 2. 
55.Ibid.; Gasana, op. cit. note 50
56.U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 2; Sandra Postel, Pillar of Sand (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1999), pp. 141-49.
57.U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 2, p. 43; Postel, op. cit. note 56, pp. 141-49.
58.Postel, op. cit. note 56, pp. 141-49; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 2.
59.O�fHara quoted in Michael Wines, �gGrand Soviet Scheme for Sharing Water in Central Asia is Foundering,�h New York Times, 9 December 2002.
60.�gScientists Meeting in Tunis Called for Priority Activities to Curb Desertification,�h UN News Service, 21 June 2006.
61.Alan Cowell, �gMigrants Found off Italy Boat Piled With Dead,�h International Herald Tribune, 21 October 2003. 
62.Ibid.
63.Miranda Leitsinger, �gAfrican Migrants Die an Ocean Away,�h Washington Post, 2 June 2006; Mar Roman, �gA New Record For Africans Risking Boat Route to Europe,�h Washington Post, 4 September 2006. 
64.Ginger Thompson, �gMexico Worries About Its Own Southern Border,�h New York Times, 18 June 2006.
65.�gMexico�fs Immigration Problem: The Kamikazes of Poverty,�h The Economist, 31 January 2004.
66.Frank Bruni, �gOff Sicily, Tide of Bodies Roils Immigrant Debate,�h New York Times, 23 September 2002; Flora Botsford, �gSpain Recovers Drowned Migrants,�h BBC News, 25 April 2002; �gBoat Sinks Off Coast of Turkey: One Survivor and 7 Bodies Found,�h Agence France-Presse, 22 December 2003; Mary Jordan and Kevin Sullivan, �gTrade Brings Riches, But Not to Mexico�fs Poor,�h Washington Post, 22 March 2003; Robert McLeman and Barry Smit, �gClimate Change, Migration and Security,�h Commentary No. 86 (Ottawa: Canadian Security Intelligence Service, 2 March 2004); Arizona desert deaths from �gHumane Approach to Border,�h Denver Post, 24 April 2003.
67.Abandoned villages in India from Tushaar Shah et al., The Global Groundwater Situation: Overview of Opportunities and Challenges (Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute, 2000); U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 2, p. 42.
68.Wang Tao, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute (CAREERI), Chinese Academy of Sciences, e-mail to author, 4 April 2004; Wang Tao, �gThe Process and Its Control of Sandy Desertification in Northern China,�h CAREERI, Chinese Academy of Sciences, seminar on desertification, held in Lanzhou, China, May 2002.
69.Iranian News Agency, �gOfficial Warns of Impending Desertification Catastrophe in Southeast Iran,�h BBC International Reports, 29 September 2002; Government of Nigeria, op. cit. note 47, p. 6.
70.Fund for Peace and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, �gThe Failed States Index,�h Foreign Policy, July/August 2005, pp. 56-65.
71.Fund for Peace and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, �gThe Failed States Index,�h Foreign Policy, July/August 2007, pp. 54-63.
72.Fund for Peace and Carnegie Endowment, op. cit. note 70.
73.Fund for Peace and Carnegie Endowment, op. cit. note 71.
74.Ibid.; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 2.
75.U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 2.
76.Richard Cincotta, Robert Engelman, and Daniele Anastasion, The Security Demographic: Population and Civil Conflict After the Cold War (Washington, DC: Population Action International, 2003).
77.Ginger Thompson, �gA New Scourge Afflicts Haiti: Kidnappings,�h New York Times, 6 July 2005; Madeleine K. Albright and Robin Cook, �gThe World Needs to Step It Up in Afghanistan,�h International Herald Tribune, 5 October 2004; Desmond Butler, �g5-Year Hunt Fails to Net Qaeda Suspect in Africa,�h New York Times, 14 June 2003.
78.Abraham McLaughlin, �gCan Africa Solve African Problems?�h Christian Science Monitor, 4 January 2005; Marc Lacey, �gBeyond the Bullets and Blades,�h New York Times, 20 March 2005; �gWorld Refugee Day: Testimony of Anne C. Richard, International Rescue Committee,�h before US House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Africa and Global Health, Washington, DC, 20 June 2007.
79.�gAfghanistan: The Ignored War,�h in Christy Harvey, Judd Legum, and Jonathan Baskin, The Progress Report (Washington, DC: American Progress Action Fund, 2005); Fund for Peace and Carnegie Endowment, op. cit. note 71; McLaughlin, op. cit. note 78; �gA Failing State: The Himalayan Kingdom Is a Gathering Menace,�h The Economist, 4 December 2004.
80.United Nations, �gUnited Nations Peacekeeping Operations,�h background note, at www.un.org/Depts/dpko/dpko/bnote.htm, 31 July 2007; �gUS Official Calls for NATO Flexibility in Afghanistan,�h Agence France-Presse, 6 September 2007; Marc Lacey, �gCongo Tribal Killings Create a New Wave of Refugees,�h New York Times, 6 March 2005. 
81.U.N. World Food Programme (WFP), �gNew Operation Provides WFP Food Aid to 550,000 Haitians,�h news release (Rome: 5 May 2005); WFP, �gIndia Helps WFP Feed Afghan Schoolchildren,�h news release (Rome: 17 May 2005).
82.Stephanie McCrummen, �gIn an Eastern Congo Oasis, Blood amid the Greenery,�h Washington Post, 22 July 2007.
83.Roland Ogbonnaya, �gPolio Pandemic...Is Nigeria Winning the Fight?�h This Day (Lagos), 22 July 2007.
84.David Brown, �gA Blow to Anti-Polio Campaign,�h Washington Post, 10 May 2005; Donald G. McNeil, Jr., �gMuslims�f New Tack on Polio: A Vaccine en Route to Mecca,�h New York Times, 20 August 2005; Nigerian polio cases tripling from �gWild Poliovirus 2000-2007,�h in WHO Global Polio Eradication Initiative, �gWild Poliovirus Weekly Update,�h at www.polioeradication.org, updated 2 October 2007.
85.�gWild Poliovirus 2000-2007,�h op. cit. note 84; number of polio-free countries estimated from Celia W. Dugger, �gNigeria and India Cited in Rise of Polio Cases,�h New York Times, 13 October 2006.

Chapter 7. Eradicating Poverty, Stabilizing Population
1.U.N. General Assembly, �gUnited Nations Millennium Declaration,�h resolution adopted by the General Assembly, 8 September 2000; World Bank, Global Monitoring Report 2007: Millennium Development Goals (Washington, DC: 2007), p. 39; International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook, electronic database, www.imf.org, updated March 2007. 
2.World Bank, World Development Report 2005 (New York: Oxford University Press, 2004); Jeffrey D. Sachs, �gIndia Takes the Lead,�h Korea Herald, 4 August 2004. 
3.United Nations, �gPoverty, Percentage of Population Below $1 (PPP) Per Day, Percentage,�h Millennium Development Goals Indicators Database, updated 27 July 2007; World Bank, op. cit. note 1, pp. 1, 3. 
4.U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision Population Database, at esa.un.org/unpp, updated 2007; G-8 leaders, �gGleneagles Communique on Africa, Climate Change, Energy and Sustainable Development,�h document from G-8 Summit, Gleneagles, Scotland, July 2005; fragile states from World Bank, op. cit. note 1, p. 4.
5.U.N. General Assembly, op. cit. note 1.
6.World Bank, op. cit. note 1, pp. 1-6; U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Number of Undernourished Persons, at www.fao.org/ faostat/foodsecurity, updated 30 June 2006; UNICEF, Excluded and Invisible: The State of the World�fs Children 2006 (New York: 2005), pp. vii, 114-17.
7.All Party Parliamentary Group on Population Development and Reproductive Health, Return of the Population Growth Factor: Its Impact on the Millennium Development Goals (London: Her Majesty�fs Stationery Office, January 2007), pp. 1, 3-9; Martha Campbell et al., �gReturn of the Population Growth Factor,�h Science, vol. 315 (16 March 2007), pp. 1501-02.
8.Campbell et al., op. cit. note 7; Martha Campbell, discussion with Janet Larsen, Earth Policy Institute, 8 October 2007; All Party Parliamentary Group, op. cit. note 7, p. 4.
9.United Nations, Millennium Development Goals Report 2007 (New York: 2007), p. 11; Hilaire A. Mputu, Literacy and Non-Formal Education in the E-9 Countries (Paris: UNESCO, 2001), p. 5; Polly Curtis, �gLack of Education �ea Greater Threat than Terrorism�f: Sen,�h Guardian (London), 28 October 2003.
10.Paul Blustein, �gGlobal Education Plan Gains Backing,�h Washington Post, 22 April 2002; World Bank, �gWorld Bank Announces First Group of Countries for �eEducation For All�f Fast Track,�h press release (Washington, DC: 12 June 2002); Gene Sperling, �gThe G-8-Send 104 Million Friends to School,�h Bloomberg News, 20 June 2005. 
11.World Bank, op. cit. note 1, pp. 5, 24.
12.Gene Sperling, �gToward Universal Education,�h Foreign Affairs, September/October 2001, pp. 7-13.
13.Gene Sperling, �gEducate Them All,�h Washington Post, 20 April 2002.
14.UNESCO, EFA Global Monitoring Report 2007: Strong Foundations (Paris: 2006), p.2; U.N. Commission on Population and Development, Thirty-sixth Session, Population, Education, and Development, press releases, 31 March-4 April 2003; UNESCO, �gWinners of UNESCO Literacy Prizes 2003,�h press release, 27 May 2003.
15.U.K. Treasury, From Commitment to Action: Education (London: Department for International Development, September 2005).
16.George McGovern, The Third Freedom: Ending Hunger in Our Time (New York: Simon & Schuster: 2001), chapter 1.
17.Jeffrey Sachs, �gA New Map of the World,�h The Economist, 22 June 2000; George McGovern, �gYes We CAN Feed the World�fs Hungry,�h Parade, 16 December 2001.
18.McGovern, op. cit. note 17.
19.Ibid.
20.Ibid.
21.Countries with stable or declining populations retrieved from Population Reference Bureau (PRB), Datafinder, electronic database, at www.prb.org/DataFind/datafinder7.htm, updated 2007; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 4.
22.U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 4; United Nations, �gTotal Population (Both Sexes Combined) By Major Area, Region and Country, Annually for 1950-2050,�h table in World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Extended Dataset, CD-ROM (Rome: 15 June 2007). 
23.U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 4.
24.Program for Appropriate Technology in Health (PATH) and U.N. Population Fund (UNFPA), Meeting the Need: Strengthening Family Planning Programs (Seattle: 2006), pp. 5-11; quote from All Party Parliamentary Group, op. cit. note 7, p. 22.
25.Janet Larsen, �gIran�fs Birth Rate Plummeting at Record Pace,�h in Lester R. Brown, Janet Larsen, and Bernie Fischlowitz-Roberts, The Earth Policy Reader (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2002), pp. 190-94; see also Homa Hoodfar and Samad Assadpour, �gThe Politics of Population Policy in the Islamic Republic of Iran,�h Studies in Family Planning, March 2000, pp. 19-34, and Farzaneh Roudi, �gIran�fs Family Planning Program: Responding to a Nation�fs Needs,�h MENA Policy Brief, June 2002; Iran population growth rate from United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (New York: 2005).
26.Larsen, op. cit. note 25.
27.Ibid.
28.Ibid; population growth rates from PRB, 2005 World Population Data Sheet, wall chart (Washington, DC: August 2005), and from U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 4.
29.Pamela Polston, �gLowering the Boom: Population Activist Bill Ryerson is Saving the World-One �eSoap�f at a Time,�h Seven Days, at www.populationmedia.org/archives/archives2.html, viewed 5 October 2007.
30.Ibid.
31.Ibid.
32.Ibid.
33.Additional spending from J. Joseph Speidel et al., Family Planning and Reproductive Health: The Link to Environmental Preservation (San Francisco: Bixby Center for Reproductive Health and Research Policy, University of California, 2007), p. 10, and from J. Joseph Speidel, discussion with J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 16 October 2007. 
34.PATH and UNFPA, op. cit. note 24, p. 18. 
35.�gBangladesh: National Family Planning Program,�h Family Planning Programs: Diverse Solutions for a Global Challenge (Washington, DC: PRB, 1994); gaps from Speidel et al., op. cit. note 33, p. 10, and from Speidel, op. cit. note 33.
36.World Bank, op. cit. note 1, p. 5. 
37.Lack of access to safe water from ibid., p. 13.
38.Mustaque Chowdhury, Health Workforce for TB Control by DOTS: The BRAC Case, Joint Learning Initiative Working Paper 5-2 (Global Health Trust, 2004). 
39.Jeffrey D. Sachs and the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, Macroeconomics and Health: Investing in Health for Economic Development (Geneva: World Health Organization (WHO), 2001); �gUNICEF Lists Top Causes of Child Deaths,�h Reuters, 13 September 2007; Ruth Levine and the What Works Working Group, Millions Saved: Proven Successes in Global Health (Washington, DC: Center for Global Development, 2004). 
40.Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, �gVaccine-Preventable Diseases,�h at www.gatesfoundation.org/GlobalHealth, viewed 13 September 2007. 
41.John Donnelly, �gU.S. Seeks Cuts in Health Programs Abroad,�h Boston Globe, 5 February 2003.
42.Sachs and Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, op. cit. note 39; WHO, �gSmallpox,�h fact sheet at www.who.int, viewed 10 October 2005.
43.WHO, �gPolio Eradication: Now More Than Ever, Stop Polio Forever,�h at www.who.int/features/2004/polio/en, viewed 17 September 2007; Rotary International, �gAbout PolioPlus,�h at www.rotary.org/foundation/polioplus/index.html, viewed 17 September 2007.
44.Polio cases from �gWild Poliovirus 2000-2007,�h in WHO Global Polio Eradication Initiative, �gWild Poliovirus Weekly Update,�h at www.polioeradication.org, updated 2 October 2007; Nigeria from WHO, Global Polio Eradication Initiative: Annual Report 2006 (Geneva: 2007), p. 6.
45�gPakistan Polio Drive is Suspended,�h BBC News, 8 August 2007.
46.Michele Barry, M.D., �gThe Tail of Guinea Worm-Global Eradication Without a Drug or Vaccine,�h New England Journal of Medicine, vol. 356, no. 25 (21 June 2007), pp. 2561-64.
47.Ibid.; country information from �gReported Cases of Dracunculiasis by Country, 1972-2005,�h in Peter H. Gleick, The World�fs Water 2006-2007 (Washington, DC: Pacific Institute, 2006), pp. 293-97. 
48.Tobacco deaths from WHO, �gChronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD),�h fact sheet (Geneva: November 2006); �gThe Tobacco Epidemic: A Crisis of Startling Dimensions,�h in Message From the Director-General of the World Health Organization for World No-Tobacco Day 1998, at www.who.int; air pollution from WHO, �gAir Pollution,�h fact sheet 187 (Geneva: rev. September 2000). 
49.Alison Langley, �gAnti-Smoking Treaty Is Adopted by 192 Nations,�h New York Times, 22 May 2003; information on WHO Tobacco Free Initiative at www.who.int/tobacco/index.cfm; treaty goals and Bloomberg from Alexi A. Wright and Ingrid T. Katz, �gTobacco Tightrope-Balancing Disease Prevention and Economic Development in China,�h New England Journal of Medicine, vol. 356, no. 15 (12 April 2007), pp. 1493-96.
50.Cigarette consumption from U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Production, Supply and Distribution, electronic database, at www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline, updated 31 August 2006, and from Tom Capehart, Tobacco Outlook (Washington, DC: USDA Economic Research Service, 24 April 2007); per capita estimates made with population from U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 4; Daniel Yee, �gSmoking Declines in U.S.-Barely,�h CBS News, 10 November 2004.
51.USDA, op. cit. note 50; per capita estimates made using population from U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 4.
52.Smoking Bans Around the World,�h Reuters, 10 January 2005; �gNew Zealand Stubs Out Smoking in Bars, Restaurants,�h Reuters, 13 December 2004. 
53.�gBangladesh Bans Smoking in Many Public Places,�h Reuters, 15 March 2005; Italy from �gEuropeans Back Public Smoking Ban,�h BBC News, 31 May 2006; �gEngland Smoking Ban Takes Effect,�h BBC News, 1 July 2007; France from Howard K. Koh et al., �gMaking Smoking History Worldwide,�h New England Journal of Medicine, vol. 356, no. 15 (12 April 2007), pp. 1496-1498.
54.Bernard Wysocki, Jr., �gCompanies Get Tough With Smokers, Obese to Trim Costs,�h Wall Street Journal, 12 October 2004. 
55.Sachs and Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, op. cit. note 39.
56.Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and WHO, 2006 AIDS Epidemic Update (Geneva: December 2006), p. 3; total deaths calculated using UNAIDS statistics in Worldwatch Institute, Signposts 2004, CD-Rom (Washington, DC: 2004), and in UNAIDS and WHO, AIDS Epidemic Update (Geneva: various years). 
57.Nita Bhalla, �gTeaching Truck Drivers About AIDS,�h BBC, 25 June 2001; C. B. S. Venkataramana and P. V. Sarada, �gExtent and Speed of Spread of HIV Infection in India Through the Commercial Sex Networks: A Perspective,�h Tropical Medicine and International Health, vol. 6, no. 12 (December 2001), pp. 1040-61, cited in �gHIV Spread Via Female Sex Workers in India Set to Increase Significantly by 2005,�h Reuters Health, 26 December 2001.
58.Mark Covey, �gTarget Soldiers in Fight Against AIDS Says New Report,�h press release (London: Panos Institute, 8 July 2002); �gFree Condoms for Soldiers,�h South Africa Press Association, 5 August 2001; HIV prevalence rate from UNAIDS, 2006 Report on the Global Aids Epidemic (Geneva: May 2006), p. 421.
59.Condoms needed from UNFPA, Donor Support for Contraceptives and Condoms for STI/HIV Prevention 2005 (New York: 2005); cost per condom from UNFPA, Achieving the ICPD Goals: Reproductive Health Commodity Requirements 2000-2015 (New York: 2005); Nada Chaya and Kai-Ahset Amen, with Michael Fox, Condoms Count: Meeting the Need in the Era of HIV/AIDS (Washington, DC: Population Action International, 2002).
60.Chaya and Amen, with Fox, op. cit. note 59; cost per condom from UNFPA, Achieving the ICPD Goals, op. cit. note 59.
61.�gWho Pays for Condoms,�h in Chaya and Amen, with Fox, op. cit. note 59; Communications Consortium Media Center, �gU.N. Special Session on Children Ends in Acrimony,�h PLANetWIRE.org, 14 May 2002; Adam Clymer, �gU.S. Revises Sex Information, and a Fight Goes On,�h New York Times, 27 December 2002.
62.UNAIDS, Report on the Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic (Geneva: June 2000), pp. 9-11; UNAIDS, op. cit. note 58, pp. 20, 446, 487; UNAIDS, �gUganda: Country Situation Analysis,�h at www.unaids.org/en/ Regions_Countries, viewed 14 September 2007.
63.UNAIDS and WHO, op. cit. note 56, p. 10; treated patients in 2005 from UNAIDS and WHO, Progress on Global Access to HIV Antiretroviral Therapy: An Update on �g3 by 5�h (Geneva: 2005), pp. 7, 13.
64.Clive Bell, Shantayanan Devarajan, and Hans Gersbach, �gThe Long-run Economic Cost of AIDS: Theory and an Application to South Africa,�h Policy Research Working Paper Series (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2003); �gAIDS Summit: The Economics of Letting People Die,�h Star Tribune, 16 July 2003; Deborah Mitchell, �gHIV Treatment: 2 Million Years of Life Saved,�h Reuters Health, 28 February 2005.
65.�gAIDS Summit,�h op. cit. note 64.
66.Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Agricultural Policies in OECD Countries: At a Glance 2006 (Paris: 31 July 2006), pp. 18, 19; OECD, �gDevelopment Aid from OECD Countries Fell 5.1% in 2006,�h press release (Paris: 3 April 2007); �gThe Hypocrisy of Farm Subsidies,�h New York Times, 1 December 2002.
67.European Commission, General Budget of the European Union for the Financial Year 2007: The Figures (Brussels: February 2007), p. 4; OECD, Agricultural Policies, op. cit. note 66, pp. 18-22; �gThe Hypocrisy of Farm Subsidies,�h op. cit. note 66. 
68.OECD, �gDevelopment Aid,�h op. cit. note 66; �gSouth Africa: Weaning States Off Subsidies,�h Africa News, 19 August 2005.
69.See Chapter 2 for further discussion of oil prices and ethanol.
70.Number of farmers from Oxfam International, �gOxfam Dismisses US Cotton Market Access Offer as �eEmpty Promise�f,�h press release (London: 15 December 2005); Julian Alston et al., Impacts of Reductions in US Cotton Subsidies on West African Cotton Producers (Boston: Oxfam America, 2007); OECD, OECD Statistics, electronic database, at stats.oecd.org/wbos, updated 25 September 2007; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 4.
71.Elizabeth Becker, �gLooming Battle Over Cotton Subsidies,�h New York Times, 24 January 2004; Elizabeth Becker, �gU.S. Will Cut Farm Subsidies in Trade Deal,�h New York Times, 31 July 2004; Randy Schnepf, U.S. Agricultural Policy Response to WTO Cotton Decision (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, updated 8 September 2006).
72.Schnepf, op. cit. note 71; Mark Drajem and Carlos Caminada, �gWTO Rules Against U.S. in Cotton Dispute With Brazil (Update 1),�h Bloomberg News, 27 July 2007; Alan Bjerga, �gBush�fs Opposition to �eSoviet�f Farm Bill May Get Plowed Under,�h Bloomberg News, 23 July 2007. 
73.�gEnding the Cycle of Debt,�h New York Times, 1 October 2004; debt servicing from World Bank, Little Data Book on External Debt in Global Development Finance 2007 (Washington, DC: 2007), p. 8; health care spending calculated from IMF, World Economic and Financial Surveys: Regional Economic Outlook-Sub-Saharan Africa (Washington, DC: September 2006), pp. 36, 43, from David Goldsbrough, �gIMF Programs and Health Spending,�h presented at Global Conference on Gearing Macroeconomic Policies to Reverse the HIV/AIDS Epidemic, Brasilia, Brazil, 20 November 2006, and from U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 4.
74.�gG8 Finance Ministers�f Conclusions on Development,�h Pre Summit Statement by G-8 Finance Ministers, London, 10-11 June 2005; Oxfam International, �gGleneagles: What Really Happened at the G8 Summit?�h Oxfam Briefing Note (London: 29 July 2005). 
75.Oxfam International, �gThe View From the Summit-Gleneagles G8 One Year On,�h briefing note (Oxford, U.K.: June 2006).
76.Abid Aslam, �g18 Poor Countries to See Debt Slate Wiped Clean, Saving $10 Million Per Week,�h One World US, 26 September 2005; Oxfam International, op. cit. note 75. 
77.UNFPA, The State of World Population 2004 (New York: 2004), pp. 14-15.
78.United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (New York: 2005); UNFPA, op. cit. note 77, p. 39.
79.Costs of meeting social goals in Table 7-1 based on the following sources: universal primary education from U.K. Treasury, op. cit. note 15; adult literacy campaign is author�fs estimate; school lunch program from McGovern, op. cit. note 17; assistance to preschool children and pregnant women is author�fs estimate of extending the U.S.�fs Women, Infants, and Children program, based on ibid.; reproductive health and family planning from Speidel et al., op. cit. note 33, p. 10, and from Speidel, op. cit. note 33; universal basic health care from Sachs and Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, op. cit. note 39; closing the condom gap estimated from UNFPA, Donor Support for Contraceptives and Condoms, op. cit. note 59, and from UNFPA, Achieving the ICPD Goals, op. cit. note 59.
80.Sachs and Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, op. cit. note 39.
81.Ibid.; Wu Xiaoling, �gStatement of Madam Wu Xiaoling, Deputy Governor of the People�fs Bank of China,�h speech delivered at the 39th Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors of the African Development Bank (Group), Kampala, Uganda, 25-26 May 2004.

Chapter 8. Restoring the Earth
1.Craig A. Cox, �gConservation Can Mean Life or Death,�h Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, November/December 2004.
2.Remaining forests from �gTable 2.1. Distribution of Forests by Subregion 2005,�h in U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Forest Resources Assessment (FRA) 2005 (Rome: 2006). 
3.FAO, ForesSTAT Statistics Database, at faostat.fao.org, updated 22 December 2006; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Municipal Solid Waste Generation, Recycling, and Disposal in the United States: Facts and Figures for 2005 (Washington, DC: 2005). 
4.Fuelwood as a proportion of total harvested wood from FAO, op. cit. note 3; Daniel M. Kammen, �gFrom Energy Efficiency to Social Utility: Lessons from Cookstove Design, Dissemination, and Use,�h in Jose Goldemberg and Thomas B. Johansson, Energy as an Instrument for Socio-Economic Development (New York: U.N. Development Programme, 1995). 
5.Kevin Porter, �gFinal Kakuma Evaluation: Solar Cookers Filled a Critical Gap,�h in Solar Cookers International, Solar Cooker Review, vol. 10, no. 2 (November 2004); cost from �gBreakthrough in Kenyan Refugee Camps,�h at solarcooking.org/kakuma-m.htm, viewed 30 July 2007. 
6.FAO, Agriculture: Towards 2015/30, Technical Interim Report (Geneva: Economic and Social Department, 2000), pp. 156-57.
7.Johanna Son, �gPhilippines: Row Rages Over Lifting of Ban on Lumber Exports,�h InterPress Service, 17 April 1998; John Aglionby, �gPhilippines Bans Logging After Fatal Floods,�h Guardian (London),6 December 2004; Republic of the Philippines, �gPresident Okays Selective Lifting of Log Ban,�h press release (Manila: 7 March 2005). 
8.Alliance for Forest Conservation and Sustainable Use, �gWWF/World Bank Forest Alliance Launches Ambitious Program to Reduce Deforestation and Curb Illegal Logging,�h press release (New York: World Bank/WWF, 25 May 2005); certified area from Alliance for Forest Conservation and Sustainable Use, �gWorld Bank/WWF Alliance for Forest Conservation & Sustainable Use: Questions & Answers,�h World Bank/WWF, at www.worldwildlife.org/alliance, viewed 30 July 2007; new protected area from Alliance for Forest Conservation and Sustainable Use, �gWWF/World Bank Alliance Targets,�h at www.worldwildlife.org/alliance, viewed 30 July 2007.
9.Forest Stewardship Council, FSC Certified Forests (Bonn, Germany: 2005), pp. 34, 40, 53; Forest Stewardship Council, �gFSC Certification: Maps, Graphs, and Statistics (July 2007),�h PowerPoint Presentation, at www.fsc.org/en/whats_new/fsc_certificates/maps, viewed 30 July 2007.
10.A. Del Lungo, J. Ball, and J. Carle, Global Planted Forests Thematic Study: Results and Analysis (Rome: FAO Forestry Department, December 2006); grain area from U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Production, Supply and Distribution, electronic database, at www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline, updated 10 August 2007.
11.R. James and A. Del Lungo, �gComparisons of Estimates of �eHigh Value�f Wood With Estimates of Total Forest Plantation Production,�h table in The Potential for Fast-Growing Commercial Forest Plantations to Supply High Value Roundwood (Rome: FAO Forestry Department, February 2005), p. 24; FAO, op. cit. note 3.
12.Plantation area in �gTable 4. Total Planted Forest Area: Productive and Protective-61 Sampled Countries,�h in Del Lungo, Ball, and Carle, op. cit. note 10, pp. 66-70; Ashley T. Mattoon, �gPaper Forests,�h World Watch, March/April 1998, pp. 20-28.
13.Plantation yields from Mattoon, op. cit. note 12; corn yields from USDA, op. cit. note 10.
14.FAO, op. cit. note 6, p. 185; Chris Brown and D. J. Mead, eds., �gFuture Production from Forest Plantations,�h Forest Plantation Thematic Paper (Rome: FAO, 2001), p. 9.
15.Reed Funk, letter to author, 9 August 2005. 
16.M. Davis et al., �gNew England-Acadian Forests,�h in Taylor H. Ricketts et al., eds., Terrestrial Ecoregions of North America: A Conservation Assessment (Washington, DC: Island Press, 1999); David R. Foster, �gHarvard Forest: Addressing Major Issues in Policy Debates and in the Understanding of Ecosystem Process and Pattern,�h LTER Network News: The Newsletter of the Long Term Ecological Network, spring/summer 1996; U.S. Forest Service, �g2006 Forest Health Highlights,�h various state sheets, at fhm.fs.fed.us, viewed 2 August 2007.
17.C. Csaki, �gAgricultural Reforms in Central and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union: Status and Perspectives,�h Agricultural Economics, vol. 22 (2000), pp. 37-54; Igor Shvytov, Agriculturally Induced Environmental Problems in Russia, Discussion Paper No. 17 (Halle, Germany: Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe, 1998), p. 13. 
18.Se-Kyung Chong, �gAnmyeon-do Recreation Forest: A Millennium of Management,�h in Patrick B. Durst et al., In Search of Excellence: Exemplary Forest Management in Asia and the Pacific, Asia-Pacific Forestry Commission (Bangkok: FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, 2005), pp. 251-59.
19.Ibid.
20.Turkish Foundation for Combating Soil Erosion (TEMA), at english.tema.org.tr, viewed 31 July 2007.
21.U.S. Embassy, Niamey, Niger, �gNiger: Greener Now Than 30 Years Ago,�h reporting cable circulated following national FRAME workshop, October 2006; Chris Reij, �gMore Success Stories in Africa�fs Drylands Than Often Assumed,�h presentation at Network of Farmers�f and Agricultural Producers�f Organisations of West Africa (ROPPA) Forum on Food Sovereignty, 7-10 November 2006. 
22.U.S. Embassy, op. cit. note 21; Reij, op. cit. note 21.
23.Secretariat of the U.N. Convention to Combat Desertification, �gThe Great North American Dust Bowl: A Cautionary Tale,�h Global Alarm Dust and Sandstorms from the World�fs Drylands (Bangkok: 2002), pp. 77-121.
24.Jeffrey Zinn, Conservation Reserve Program: Status and Current Issues (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 8 May 2001); USDA, Economic Research Service, Agri-Environmental Policy at the Crossroads: Guideposts on a Changing Landscape (Washington, DC: 2001). 
25.USDA, Natural Resources Conservation Service, CORE4 Conservation Practices Training Guide: The Common Sense Approach to Natural Resource Conservation (Washington, DC: August 1999); Rolf Derpsch, �gFrontiers in Conservation Tillage and Advances in Conservation Practice,�h in D. E. Stott, R. H. Mohtar, and G. C. Steinhardt, eds., Sustaining the Global Farm, selected papers from the 10th International Soil Conservation Organization Meeting, at Purdue University and USDA-ARS National Soil Erosion Research Laboratory, 24-29 May 1999 (Washington, DC: 2001), pp. 248-54.
26.Conservation Technology Information Center, Purdue University, �gNational Tillage Trends (1990-2004),�h from the 2004 National Crop Residue Management Survey Data; FAO, Intensifying Crop Production with Conservation Agriculture, at www.fao.org/ag, viewed 20 May 2003; Brazil, Argentina, and Australia from Rolf Derpsch, no-tillage consultant, e-mails to J. Matthew Roney, Earth Policy Institute, 6 and 11 August 2007; Canada from Doug McKell, Soil Conservation Council of Canada, �gNo-till Census Data-Canada,�h presented at meeting of Confederation of American Associations for the Production of Sustainable Agriculture, Bella Vista, Paraquay, 12-14 September 2007.
27.FAO, op. cit. note 26.
28.�gAlgeria to Convert Large Cereal Land to Tree-Planting,�h Reuters, 8 December 2000; Souhail Karam, �gDrought-Hit North Africa Seen Hunting for Grains,�h Reuters, 15 July 2005.
29.Godwin Nnanna, �gAfrica�fs Message for China,�h China Dialogue, 18 April 2007; International Institute for Sustainable Development, �gAfrican Regional Coverage Project,�h Eighth African Union Summit-Briefing Note, vol. 7, issue 2 (Geneva: 7 February 2007), p. 8; Federal Republic of Nigeria, Ministry of Environment, �gGreen Wall Sahara Programme,�h at www.greenwallsahara.org, viewed 17 October 2007. 
30.Evan Ratliff, �gThe Green Wall of China,�h Wired, April 2003; Wang Yan, �gChina�fs Forest Shelter Project Dubbed �eGreen Great Wall�f,�h Xinhua News Agency, 9 July 2006; Sun Xiufang and Ralph Bean, China Solid Wood Products Annual Report 2002 (Beijing: USDA, 2002).
31.Author�fs discussion with officials of Helin County, Inner Mongolia (Nei Monggol), 17 May 2002.
32.Ibid.
33.U.S. Embassy, Grapes of Wrath in Inner Mongolia (Beijing: May 2001). 
34.India�fs dairy industry from A. Banerjee, �gDairying Systems in India,�h World Animal Review, vol. 79/2 (Rome: FAO, 1994).
35.Andrew Balmford et al., �gThe Worldwide Costs of Marine Protected Areas,�h Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 101, no. 26 (29 June 2004), pp. 9694-97; �gCosts of a Worldwide System of Marine Parks,�h press release (York: The University of York, 12 July 2004); current protected area from World Wildlife Fund (WWF), �gProblems: Inadequate Protection,�h at www.panda.org, viewed 9 August 2007.
36.Balmford et al., op. cit. note 35; Tim Radford, �gMarine Parks Can Solve Global Fish Crisis, Experts Say,�h Guardian (London), 15 June 2004.
37.Balmford et al., op. cit. note 35; Radford, op. cit. note 36.
38.Radford, op. cit. note 36; Richard Black, �gProtection Needed for �eMarine Serengetis,�f�h BBC News, 6 August 2003; Balmford et al., op. cit. note 35.
39.American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), �gLeading Marine Scientists Release New Evidence that Marine Reserves Produce Enormous Benefits within Their Boundaries and Beyond,�h press release (Washington, DC: 12 March 2001); �gScientific Consensus Statement on Marine Reserves and Marine Protected Areas,�h presented at the AAAS annual meeting, 15-20 February 2001.
40.AAAS, op. cit. note 39; �gScientific Consensus Statement,�h op. cit. note 39, p. 2.
41.R. J. Diaz, J. Nestlerode, and M. L. Diaz, �gA Global Perspective on the Effects of Eutrophication and Hypoxia on Aquatic Biota,�h in G. L. Rupp and M. D. White, eds., Proceedings of the 7th Annual Symposium on Fish Physiology, Toxicology and Water Quality, Estonia, 12-15 May 2003 (Athens, GA: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Ecosystems Research Division, 2004); U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP), GEO Yearbook 2003 (Nairobi: 2004).
42.WWF, Hard Facts, Hidden Problems: A Review of Current Data on Fishing Subsidies (Washington, DC: 2001), pp. ii; Balmford et al., op. cit. note 35; Radford, op. cit. note 36; fishery subsidy value includes �gbad�h subsidies and fuel subsidies as estimated in Fisheries Center University of British Columbia, Catching More Bait: A Bottom-Up Re-Estimation of Global Fisheries Subsidies (2nd Version) (Vancouver, BC: The Fisheries Center, 2006), p. 21.
43.U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision Population Database, at esa.un.org/unpp, updated 2007.
44.WWF, op. cit. note 35. 
45.Conservation International, �gBiodiversity Hotspots,�h at www.biodiversity hotspots.org, viewed 31 July 2007. 
46.U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, �gThe Endangered Species Act of 1973,�h at www.fws.gov/endangered, viewed 31 July 2007; Mark Clayton, �gNew Tool to Fight Global Warming: Endangered Species Act,�h Christian Science Monitor, 7 September 2007; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service-Alaska, �gPolar Bear Conservation Issues,�h at alaska.fws.gov/ fisheries/mmm/polarbear/issues.htm, updated 5 October 2007.
47.Vattenfall, Global Mapping of Greenhouse Gas Abatement Opportunities up to 2030: Forestry Sector Deep-Dive (Stockholm: June 2007), p.1. 
48.Ibid., p. 6; World Resources Institute, Climate Analysis Indicator Tool, electronic database at cait.wri.org, updated 2007.
49.�gForestry Cuts Down on Logging,�h China Daily, 26 May 1998; Erik Eckholm, �gChina Admits Ecological Sins Played Role in Flood Disaster,�h New York Times, 26 August 1998; Erik Eckholm, �gStunned by Floods, China Hastens Logging Curbs,�h New York Times, 27 September 1998; Chris Brown, Patrick B. Durst, and Thomas Enters, Forests Out of Bounds: Impacts and Effectiveness of Logging Bans in Natural Forests in Asia-Pacific (Bangkok, Thailand: FAO Regional Office for Asia Pacific, 2001); John Aglionby, �gPhilippines Bans Logging After Fatal Floods,�h Guardian (London), 6 December 2004.
50.Geoffrey Lean, �gA Disaster to Take Everyone�fs Breath Away,�h The Independent (London), 24 July 2006; Daniel Nepstad, �gClimate Change and the Forest,�h Tomorrow�fs Amazonia: Using and Abusing the World�fs Last Great Forests (Washington, DC: The American Prospect, September 2007); S. S. Saatchi et al., �gDistribution of Aboveground Live Biomass in the Amazon Rainforest,�h Global Change Biology, vol. 13, no. 4 (April 2007), pp. 816-37.
51.Vattenfall, op. cit. note 47, p. 16; sequestration per tree calculated assuming 500 trees per hectare, from UNEP Billion Tree Campaign, �gFast Facts,�h at www.unep.org/billiontreecampaign, viewed 10 October 2007; growing period from Robert N. Stavins and Kenneth R. Richards, The Cost of U.S. Forest Based Carbon Sequestration (Arlington, VA: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, January 2005), p. 10.
52.Vattenfall, op. cit. note 47, pp. 1, 16; Dollar to Euro exchange rate of 1.4, from �gBenchmark Currency Rates,�h at www.bloomberg.com/markets, viewed 17 October 2007. 
53.UNEP Billion Tree Campaign, at www.unep.org/billiontreecampaign, viewed 12 October 2007; �gMexico Celebrates Dia del Arbol with a Commitment to Plant 250 Million Trees,�h at www.unep.org/billiontreecampaign/CampaignNews, viewed 26 October 2007; Ethiopia pledge from Daniel Wallis, �gUN Wins Pledges to Plant a Billion Trees,�h Reuters, 22 May 2007; Senegal pledge from �gGlobal Tree Planting Campaign Puts Down a Billion Roots on International Biological Diversity Day,�h at www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual, viewed 12 October 2007. 
54.�gThe State of Parana in Brazil Undertakes a Major Reforestation Project,�h at www.unep.org/billiontreecampaign/CampaignNews, viewed 12 October 2007; �g31 July-The Greenest Day of the Calendar in India and a Tree Planting Record by 600,000 Volunteers,�h at www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual, viewed 12 October 2007; carbon sequestration assuming that three fourths of trees will be in tropics and one fourth in temperate regions, using Vattenfall, op. cit. note 47, p. 16. 
55.Ministry for the Environment, New Zealand�fs Climate Change Solutions: An Overview (Wellington, New Zealand: September 2007), p. 19; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 43; calculations assume a mature stand density of 500 trees per hectare.
56.Chang-Ran Kim, �gTokyo Turns to Rooftop Gardens to Beat the Heat,�h Reuters, 7 August 2002; Washington, D.C., program from Casey Trees, at www.caseytrees.org, viewed 12 October 2007.
57.Kathy Wolf, �gUrban Forest Values: Economic Benefits of Trees in Cities,�h fact sheet (Seattle, WA: Center for Urban Horticulture, November 1998); Greg McPherson et al., �gMunicipal Forest Benefits and Costs in Five US Cities,�h Journal of Forestry, December 2005, pp. 411-16.
58.Patrick Barta, �gJatropha Plant Gains Steam in Global Race for Biofuels,�h Wall Street Journal, 24 August 2007.
59.Rattan Lal, �gSoil Carbon Sequestration Impacts